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Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPCE) Analysts Just Trimmed Their Revenue Forecasts By 25%

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPCE), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of US$20.47 reflecting a 14% rise in the past week. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

After this downgrade, Virgin Galactic Holdings' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$24m in 2021. This would be a major improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 51% to US$0.64. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$31m and losses of US$0.58 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Virgin Galactic Holdings

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Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Virgin Galactic Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow many times over, well above its historical decline of 13% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.7% next year. So it looks like Virgin Galactic Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Virgin Galactic Holdings. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Virgin Galactic Holdings after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Virgin Galactic Holdings' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 2 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.