Published on 11/11/2020 2:26:04 PM | Source: Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 1.51% at 50501 as concerns over global economic recovery and expectations of further fiscal and monetary stimulus offered support to the safe-haven metal. Prices gained as worries about the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic impact resurfaced. Gold lost on Monday, its biggest daily fall since Aug. 11, after U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc said its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results, lifting U.S. equities to record highs. The debt some firms built up before the coronavirus pandemic makes the U.S. economy more vulnerable and could slow the pace of the recovery, risking lasting damage to the women and minority workers most affected by job losses, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said. “Those segments of the labor market most affected by amplified business cycles – when financial stability ‘guardrails’ are limited – can be populated by those workers who are most vulnerable and least able to adapt to the changed economic environment,” Rosengren said. “That imbalanced human toll is a bad outcome for democracy as well as the economy.” Budget support for the ailing euro zone economy may need to be stepped up as the impact of central bank help amid the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is limited, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.17% to settled at 10264 while prices up 753 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50066 and below same could see a test of 49632 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50799, a move above could see prices testing 51098.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49632-51098.
* Gold gained as concerns over global economic recovery and expectations of further fiscal and monetary stimulus offered support to the safe-haven metal.
* Prices gained as worries about the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic impact resurfaced.
* Fed’s Kaplan said he was "cautious and concerned" about downside economic risks in the short term because of the resurgence of the coronavirus.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 3.6% at 63044 as focus returned to the likelihood of more monetary stimulus to revive a global economy still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic. U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc said its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results. Central banks are unlikely to change their accommodative stance in the near to medium term as it will take time for a vaccine deployment and a pick-up in growth, inflation and labor market. Budget support for the ailing euro zone economy may need to be stepped up as the impact of central bank help amid the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is limited, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said. Knot, normally a conservative voice on the ECB’s Governing Council and a critic of past monetary stimulus packages, said the ECB should keep borrowing costs low to help the economy weather the storm but governments should lead the response. “The best that monetary policy can do in support of the economic outlook is to continue to neutralize the tightening effect that the pandemic would otherwise have on the highly accommodative financial conditions that were already in place pre-Corona,” Knot said. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said the resurgence of Covid-19 poses risks to the economy, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed’s emergency lending programs are still needed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.63% to settled at 12488 while prices up 2190 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61916 and below same could see a test of 60788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63699, a move above could see prices testing 64354.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60788-64354.
* Silver gained as focus returned to the likelihood of more monetary stimulus to revive a global economy still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic.
* Budget support for the ailing euro zone economy may need to be stepped up as the impact of central bank help amid the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is limited.
* U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc said its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.9% at 3058 as hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine could be on the horizon outweighed the expected negative impact on fuel demand from new lockdowns to contain the virus. The OPEC+ deal on oil output cuts could be adjusted as it has been in the past if there is consensus among members of the informal producers' group, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a conference. The Saudi minister was commenting after being asked whether OPEC+ - which groups OPEC states, Russia and other producers - would keep existing cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), rather than easing them from January to 5.7 million bpd. Global demand for oil is running about 5 million to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) below pre-coronavirus crisis levels and OPEC with its allies is likely to prolong its existing cuts. Citi Research on Monday cut its 2021 oil price forecasts after a larger-than-expected rise in COVID-19 cases, but said tighter supply from OPEC and its allies would still lead to a gradual uptick in prices next year. Citi cut its 2021 Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude price outlook by $5 to $54 and $49 respectively. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33.11% to settled at 1383 while prices up 57 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 2968 and below same could see a test of 2877 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3113, a move above could see prices testing 3167.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 2877-3167.
* Crude oil gains as hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine could be on the horizon outweighed the expected negative impact on fuel demand
* Saudi energy minister says OPEC+ oil output deal could be tweaked
* Global demand for oil is running about 5 million to 6 mbpd below pre-coronavirus crisis levels
Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.34% at 219.9 buoyed by forecasts for cooler weather than previously expected for next week. Output was on track to drop with another Tropical Storm – Eta – in the Gulf of Mexico. Eta, however, is unlikely to cause as much damage as previous storms because it is expected to weaken by the time it hits the Florida-Alabama border on Sunday. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop by 3.6 billion cubic feet to a preliminary four-week low of 84.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). As the weather turns seasonally cooler, Refinitiv projected that demand, including exports, would jump next week to 101.4 bcfd, up from 90.9 bcfd this week. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the November-March withdrawal season at a two-year low of 1.287 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on March 31. That compares with 2.014 tcf at the end of the winter withdrawal season in 2020, the highest since 2017, and a five-year (2016-2020) average of 1.828 tcf. There was 2.063 tcf of gas in storage on March 31 in 2017 and 1.185 tcf on that date in 2019. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10 bcfd so far in November, up from a five-month high of 7.7 bcfd in October. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.78% to settled at 8469 while prices up 7.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 212.4 and below same could see a test of 204.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226, a move above could see prices testing 232.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 204.8-232.
* Natural gas edged up buoyed by forecasts for cooler weather than previously expected for next week.
* U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the November-March withdrawal season at a two-year low of 1.287 tcf on March 31.
* Output was on track to drop with another Tropical Storm – Eta – in the Gulf of Mexico.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 536.05 as progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine stoked optimism that a complete economic reopening was finally in sight. Pfizer Inc said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on initial data from a large study. Chile's copper industry could see some of its mines put out of business if an early stage bill to protect glaciers continues its march through Congress. Imports of unwrought copper were a whopping 618,000 tonnes in October, bringing the year-to-date total to 5.6 million tonnes, already a record annual high with two months to spare. This surge looks like a re-run of the financial crisis a decade ago. Then, as now, China sucked up the rest of the world's copper surplus on a combination of low prices, stimulus-induced economic recovery and a wave of stock-building, both commercial and strategic. China has bought 1.17 million tonnes more refined copper this year than last year. It's a mega buying spree in a global market of 24 million tonnes. Low prices early in the year, when London Metal Exchange (LME) copper sank to $4,371 a tonne, have looked even more enticing for the world's largest buyer through the prism of its appreciating yuan currency. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.78% to settled at 4138 while prices up 1.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 530.7 and below same could see a test of 525.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 539, a move above could see prices testing 541.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 525.3-541.9.
* Copper steadied as progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine stoked optimism that a complete economic reopening was finally in sight.
* based on initial data from a large study
* Imports of unwrought copper were a whopping 618,000 tonnes in October, bringing the year-to-date total to 5.6 million tonnes
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 210.6 as Pfizer's announcement jolted shares, building on expectations of more stable trade policies following the U.S. election. Year-to-date China’s zinc imports are down 25% on last year at 358,000 tonnes and lead totals only 21,000 tonnes, down 76% on 2019. Zinc supply has been hit hard by lockdowns in South American but China's smelters seem to have weathered the storm. Imports of zinc concentrates rose 32% in the first nine months of 2020. Lead imports, meanwhile, fell 20%, but from a high base – imports last year were the highest since 2015. The evidence, so far at least, is that China's own production has been able to meet recovering demand, possibly with some help from a drawdown in stocks. According to an survey, social inventories increased, the spot market turnover was tepid, and the tension of the supply side of zinc ore had not been transmitted to the smelters. Considering the boost from macro favorable news, it is expected that SHFE zinc will keep wide fluctuation in the near term. A Biden presidency is expected to boost international trade relations and the prospect of a successful coronavirus vaccine is seen as a major tailwind, with global cases continuing to rise. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.48% to settled at 2919 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 209.2 and below same could see a test of 207.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.5, a move above could see prices testing 212.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 207.7-212.3.
* Zinc prices edges up as vaccine hopes boost risk appetite.
* Year-to-date China’s zinc imports are down 25% on last year at 358,000 tonne.
* Zinc supply has been hit hard by lockdowns in South American but China's smelters seem to have weathered the storm.
Nickel
"Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.08% at 1192.8 as investors in the region react to positive developments overnight on the coronavirus vaccine front. China's refined nickel imports have totalled only 98,000 tonnes so far in 2020, down 40% year on year and the lowest level since 2008. Imports doubled between that year and 2009, but there is no sign of anything similar happening in 2020. China's import needs have changed dramatically over the past decade, reflecting the build-out of stainless steel capacity. Stainless mills use nickel pig iron (NPI) or ferro-nickel, not refined metal. The nation's trade has come to be dominated by imports of nickel ore from the Philippines and, before this year's export ban, Indonesia. The latter's rapid build-out of NPI capacity is now tilting the raw materials flow to China's stainless steel sector in favour of the intermediate product. Refined nickel imports have been declining steadily since 2015 but the lack of kick from China's ongoing demand recovery is noteworthy. The stimulation of information will gradually cool down, and the possibility of slightly driving metals to rise still exists. Recently, macro events frequently occur, and commodities are greatly affected and fluctuated.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.7% to settled at 1732 while prices up 12.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1177.3 and below same could see a test of 1161.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1201.3, a move above could see prices testing 1209.8."
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1161.8-1209.8.
* Nickel prices gained as investors in the region react to positive developments overnight on the coronavirus vaccine front.
* China refined nickel consumption to reach 5% growth in 2021
* China's refined nickel imports have totalled only 98,000 tonnes so far in 2020, down 40% year on year and the lowest level since 2008.
Aluminium
"Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 156.6 supported by promising news on a coronavirus vaccine. U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech announced their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19. China's consumer price inflation eased to the lowest since October 2009 as pork prices fell for the first time in 19 months, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Consumer price inflation slowed to an 11-month low of 0.5 percent in October from 1.7 percent in September. China’s imports of primary and alloy aluminium have leapt since June after a rare arbitrage window opened. China flipped to being a net importer of the metal in all forms over July and August for the first time since 2009, though the import flood showed signs of abating in September. Cumulative primary aluminium imports of 766,000 tonnes over January-September have not quite reached the peaks of 2009, when they hit 1.5 million tonnes. But imports of alloy aluminium have been stronger at 932,000 tonnes, compared with 243,000 tonnes in the 2009 calendar year. Higher demand for alloy is probably also down to China's reduced scrap intake, aluminium volumes tumbling another 49% so far in 2020.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.77% to settled at 936 while prices up 1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 155.8 and below same could see a test of 154.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 157.2, a move above could see prices testing 157.7."
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 154.9-157.7.
* Aluminium prices gained supported by promising news on a coronavirus vaccine.
* China's consumer price inflation eased to the lowest since October 2009
* China’s imports of primary and alloy aluminium have leapt since June after a rare arbitrage window opened.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 946 as prices are on attractive levels at this movement as prices fallen since the start of the year. Unlock down will support demand for industry as Mentha oil is most used in pharma industry, cosmetics industry, FMCG sector as well as confectionery products. Due to prevailing low prices for natural mentha companies using synthetic menthol will rely on natural mentha this year. New demand for Mentha products can be seen as produce are also used in pain relieving medication, cough syrup, soap and sanitizer. These days, due to the increase of pests on Mentha plants, the possibility of oil shortage has increased. In recent session prices remained under pressure as production this year is up by 40% compare with last year. Sharp drop seen suddenly as arrival has increased, farmers are constantly bringing their crops to the mandis as this year farmers had a bumper yield. Mentha crop has been cultivated on a large scale due to reduced production of kharif crop. There were expectations of higher area under cultivation for crop year 2020-21. According to market sources, the yields could be between 52,000-56,000 tonnes this year, up by 40 per cent Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.34% to settled at 147 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 945.1 and below same could see a test of 944.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 946.9, a move above could see prices testing 947.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 944.2-947.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 45.7 Rupees to end at 1104.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil gains as prices are on attractive levels at this movement as prices fallen since the start of the year.
* These days, due to the increase of pests on Mentha plants, the possibility of oil shortage has increased.
* Unlock down will support demand for industry as Mentha oil is most used in pharma, cosmetics, FMCG sector
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 4308 as the country has witnessed good planting of soya. Though late rains affected overall crop numbers, both soya and groundnut crops are higher than the previous year even with some damage to crops due to late rains. SEA said that farmers are getting good prices for soya and ‘mandi’ prices are ruling 8-10 per cent higher than minimum support price. Soybean acreage is expected to improve by 8.17 per cent but the production is expected to reduce by 15.29 per cent due to heavy rains in September and October in major growing areas which has diminished hope of normal crop. India is likely to produce 10.46 million tonnes of soybean in 2020, nearly 15% lower than the previous estimate, as excessive rainfall during harvesting and pest diseases hit the oilseed. USDA in a weekly report, said the U.S. soybean crop was 92% harvested, compared with expectations for 94%.Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totalled 5.02 million tonnes by Nov. 8. That was 5% above the volume imported by the same week in the previous 2019/20 season, the data showed. Soymeal imports in 2020/21 came to 6.35 million tonnes, down 8%, while palm oil imports stood at 2.13 million tonnes, up 1%. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.87% to settled at 147590 while prices down -13 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4270 and below same could see a test of 4232 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4344, a move above could see prices testing 4380.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4232-4380.
* Soyabean prices dropped as the country has witnessed good planting of soya.
* USDA in a weekly report, said the U.S. soybean crop was 92% harvested, compared with expectations for 94%.
* Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totalled 5.02 million tonnes by Nov. 8.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -31 Rupees to 4353 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 999.2 on some profit booking after prices seen supported amid reports of steady buying of Soybean from China based on phase one trade deal with the United States had supported prices. There have been reports of lower yields of 5-10 percent compared to the last year 2019-20 in the major states of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The Central Government is likely to raise import duties on vegetable oils such as Soy Oil, based on recent sources to make India more self-reliant. India is likely to produce 10.46 million tonnes of soybean in 2020, nearly 15% lower than the previous estimate, as excessive rainfall during harvesting and pest diseases hit the oilseed, a leading trade body said in a statement. Lower-than-expected production of main summer-sown oilseed could prompt the world's biggest vegetable oil importer increase costly purchases of palm oil , soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Regular rainfall during harvesting and the pest and disease attacks in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, biggest and third biggest producers in the country respectively, badly affected crop and led to low yields, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.49% to settled at 42455 while prices down -2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 992 and below same could see a test of 985 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1004, a move above could see prices testing 1009.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 985-1009.
* Ref soyoil dropped on some profit booking after prices seen supported amid reports of steady buying of Soybean from China
*The Central Government is likely to raise import duties on vegetable oils such as Soy Oil, based on recent sources to make India more self-reliant.
* India is likely to produce 10.46 million tonnes of soybean in 2020, nearly 15% lower than the previous estimate
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1005 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 887.4 as pressure seen after update exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November 1-10 fell 17.1% to 443,895 tonnes from 535,552 tonnes shipped during October 1-10. Malaysia's palm oil inventories in October slumped to their lowest in more than three years, down 8.6% on-month, on lower production and as seasonal buying from key importer India lifted exports, according to an industry regulator. Inventories in the world's second-largest producer of palm oil stumbled to 1.57 million tonnes, their lowest since June 2017, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said. Crude palm oil production contracted 7.8% on-month to 1.72 million tonnes, its lowest since May, MPOB said, hampered by wet weather conditions and labour shortage.Domestic consumption has also gone down due to pandemic-related demand destruction.Meanwhile, palm oil exports rose less than expected, ticking up 3.8% to 1.67 million tonnes and up for a second month, MPOB said. Cargo surveyors have flagged that shipments from Malaysia during Nov. 1-10 fell between 17% and 19% from the same period last month. .Shipments to top buyer India in November will ease after the festive season and may further hurt palm oil prospects. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.62% to settled at 4070 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 880.8 and below same could see a test of 874.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 892, a move above could see prices testing 896.6.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 874.2-896.6.
* Crude palm oil dropped as pressure seen after update exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November 1-10 fell 17.1%.
* Malaysia's palm oil inventories in October slumped to their lowest in more than three years, down 8.6% on-month
* Inventories in the world's second-largest producer of palm oil stumbled to 1.57 million tonnes, their lowest since June 2017
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 4.9 Rupees to end at 886.6 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 6125 as the government has set a target to achieve a record-high 7.5 mln ha area under the mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) rabi season. This exercise is part of the government's mission to attain self-sufficiency in producing oilseeds so that it can curtail hefty imports of edible oils. The government is adopting all possible measures to increase mustard area this year from around 6.9 mln ha in 2019-20. It is providing good quality seeds in mustard minikits to farmers. The government is set to provide 26,700 tn of certified mustard seeds for sowing during the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) rabi season, 6.4% higher than the quantity farmers need, a senior farm ministry official said. This is expected to help increase mustard output this year as certified seeds have higher germination rate against the normal ones available with farmers. At the same time, Punjab's decision to buy all crops at the minimum support price is also expected to lure farmers towards mustard as the oilseed attracts higher minimum support price and lesser cost of cultivation as comparison to wheat. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.08% to settled at 28870 while prices down -16 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6082 and below same could see a test of 6039 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6161, a move above could see prices testing 6197.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6039-6197.
* Mustard seed dropped as the government has set a target to achieve a record-high 7.5 mln ha area
* The government is adopting all possible measures to increase mustard area this year from around 6.9 mln ha in 2019-20.
* The government is set to provide 26,700 tn of certified mustard seeds for sowing during the 2020-21
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 31.8 Rupees to end at 6156.8 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 5784 as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals. Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production. Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis as against last year’s production of 5.35 lakh tonnes. Turmeric prices trading lower owing to decline in demand from exporters and bulk buyers such as spice manufacturers amid the ongoing lockdown. However, there is good demand from domestic market anticipating high demand in the coming months due to Turmeric’s increasing awareness as immunity booster. On export front, Turmeric exports are likely to remain lower compared to previous year as demand from export destinations such as the US and West Asia is likely to fall due to outbreak of Corona virus. On export front, India exported 1.10 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (April- January) a decrease of around 4% from the same period of last year. India exported around 0.09 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in January 2020 which is 15% higher than 0.08 lakh tonnes shipped in January 2019. However, in January 2020, Turmeric exports reported at 0.09 lakh tonnes, 39% lower than 0.15 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.53% to settled at 8315 while prices down -12 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5748 and below same could see a test of 5714 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5808, a move above could see prices testing 5834.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5714-5834.
* Turmeric prices dropped as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals.
* Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production.
* Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5650 Rupees gained 26.1 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 14250 on profit booking after prices seen supported by a likely fall in the acreage in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) rabi season. Farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan may opt for other rabi crops due to remunerative prices. Sowing has started in the key growing districts and it is likely to gain pace after Diwali. Rabi sowing in Gujarat has kicked-off with farmers looking at a blooming season amid ample water availability following a good monsoon. However, jeera looks to be going slow in the sowing. Farmers attributed a slowdown in jeera cultivation to lower realisation from the crop as compared to last year and increased moisture in the land, which has increased the risk of the jeera plants getting infected with diseases. Last year the rabi sowing was delayed by over a month due to muddy soil following an unusually delayed withdrawal of monsoon and followed by the Maha cyclonic storm. Farmers, however, explained that while this year the monsoon withdrawal was delayed, but dry and bright sunny days in the later parts of October months brightened the prospects for rabi cultivation. According to Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) crop estimates, Jeera production to rise by 29% at 5.36 lakh tonnes from 4.17 lakh tonnes last year. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.95% to settled at 3135 while prices down -150 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14160 and below same could see a test of 14070 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14390, a move above could see prices testing 14530.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14070-14530.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported by a likely fall in the acreage in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) rabi season
* Rabi sowing in Gujarat has kicked-off with farmers looking at a blooming season amid ample water availability following a good monsoon.
* Farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan may opt for other rabi crops due to remunerative prices.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -20.4 Rupees to end at 14073.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 19840 on profit booking after prices gained as support seen after Crop damage is expected along with loss of quality and yield of cotton in cotton producing states Telangana and Andhra Pradesh due to heavy rainfall for the last two days in India. Nearly five lakh bales of new cotton have reached the mandis of various cotton producing states of the country. In view of the arrival and increase in cotton in the coming days, the Cotton Ministry Limited (CCI), an undertaking of the Ministry of Textiles, has started purchasing white gold of farmers in Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab at the minimum support price. According to sources, during the current cotton season year 2020-21, the CCI is going to buy 2 million bales of white gold directly from more farmers than last year. This year the corporation will buy 1.25 crore bales of white gold in the country whereas last year the corporation bought one crore five lakh 14000 bales of white gold at the minimum support price. According to sources, the CAB estimates that during the current cotton season, there will be 360 million bales of white gold production. Whereas last year the production was 3.57 crore bales. This time around 4 to 4.25 crore bales of production are being speculated by private traders in the country. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.44% to settled at 1482 while prices down -10 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19770 and below same could see a test of 19700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 19900, a move above could see prices testing 19960.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 19700-19960.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained as support seen after Crop damage is expected along with loss of quality and yield
* Nearly five lakh bales of new cotton have reached the mandis of various cotton producing states of the country.
* CCI has started purchasing white gold of farmers in Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab at the minimum support price.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 19430 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 5229 on profit booking after estimates kharif Pulses production in 2020-21 has been pegged at 93.1 Lakh tonnes, 20.6% higher than 77.2 Lakh tonnes produced in 2019-20. However Government’s announcement of providing free Pulses to the poor till November shall be preventing fall in prices in coming weeks, since it has resulted in higher procurement by the Government agencies. There is no import parity till Rs. 6000-6500/qtl. Therefore chances of imports to occur are unlikely this year, thereby keeping supplies restricted. At the same time inflation is well under control so intervention from the Government is least likely as of now. Also the daily arrivals till date are quite lower than the daily arrivals during corresponding period of last year. This is indicative of the fact that farmers and stockists are still holding most of the produce anticipating further price appreciation in near term. This also indicates that the actual production of Chana for year 2019-2020 may be lower as estimated earlier, than the year before. Consumption continues under the PMGKAY scheme while demand for sowing will improve soon as the planting season approaches. Trade sources say that nearly 7-10 Lakh tonnes of Chana will be required additionally for planting of Chana. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.18% to settled at 44490 while prices down -34 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5206 and below same could see a test of 5184 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5259, a move above could see prices testing 5290.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5184-5290.
* Chana dropped on profit booking after estimates kharif Pulses production in 2020-21 has been pegged at 93.1 Lakh tonnes, 20.6% higher
* Rally in chana prices has also been helped by the distribution of the pulse under the PMGKAY
* With supply issues persisting and government likely to take measures with an eye on encouraging more sowing
* n Delhi spot market, chana remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 5077.3 Rupees per 100 kgs.
