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McDonald's Corporation Just Recorded A 23% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

As you might know, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$5.4b were what the analysts expected, McDonald's surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$2.35 per share, an impressive 23% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for McDonald's

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from McDonald's' 27 analysts is for revenues of US$22.0b in 2021, which would reflect a notable 16% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 26% to US$8.34. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$22.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.38 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$238. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on McDonald's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$265 and the most bearish at US$185 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that McDonald's' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow 16%, well above its historical decline of 5.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 23% next year. So although McDonald's' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that McDonald's' revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple McDonald's analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - McDonald's has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.