Nagpur: Some 49.7% people surveyed tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies, say the much awaited results of the sero survey conducted in October across Nagpur district. Though not officially declared, sources confirmed to TOI on Monday that out of 2,000-odd samples collected from various parts of Nagpur city, almost half had Covid-19 antibodies.
This means, nearly 50% of the city population has already been exposed to Covid-19, and recovered on the basis of their own immunity by developing antibodies. In other words, if one considers Nagpur’s population at about 30 lakh; then nearly 15 lakh people in Nagpur have already been infected by Covid-19, stayed asymptomatic or experienced mild symptoms, and recovered.
While Nagpur city’s average prevalence is 49.7%, the zone wise details may tell a different story. Crowded localities like Mominpura, Naik Talao, Sakkardara, Mahal, and Itwari have more than 55% to 60% sero prevalence while other areas in city have less than 50%. Final zone and cluster wise figures of this survey are expected to be released on November 10.
According to specialist doctors, this high prevalence of Covid-19 is a strong indicator that the second wave, whenever it comes, may not be very intense. But, they also asked people not to be careless about Covid precautions.
“Nearly 50% of the city population has developed immunity. This means, if second wave comes, the number of patients will be lesser than the first wave. But, we should not take it casually as the virus is ever mutating,” said Dr Ashwini Tayade, infectious disease specialist. Mentioning that similar sero survey results were seen in Dharavi (Mumbai) and some parts of Pune, she said a fresh surge is still being observed there.
“Next two weeks are crucial. If we successfully control the spread of infection in new localities, we can even avoid second wave. Our precautions can make the second wave very weak,” said infectious disease specialist Dr Nitin Shinde. He said that sero prevalence in Nagpur was even more than New Delhi’s recent survey, which is around 29%. Delhi is presently witnessing surge in cases again.
Dr Vinky Rughwani, vice president of Maharashtra Medical Council (MMC), was one of the first medical practitioners in city to claim there is community spread in city. “With more than 55% prevalence in this area, it’s clear that there was community spread. Now, people need to be careful for next few days and avoid further spread of infection,” he said.
HOW SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED
Total 2,000 samples were collected from city, 200 each from 10 zones
Each zone divided into 4 clusters, with 50 samples collected
Samples collected from healthy people who had never been tested for Covid-19 were preferred
In clusters like Satranjipura and Mominpura, where entire locality was tested during the pandemic, authorities preferred citizens who had tested negative in tests
In Nagpur rural, samples collected from all 13 tehsils, with 50 samples from 3 high prevalence villages
Blood samples were collected and tested at microbiology department of GMCH
Some interesting outcomes
4,000 | Samples collected from across district
49.7% | from city had Covid-19 antibodies
20.7% | from Nagpur rural had antibodies
35.2% | Overall Nagpur district average with antibodies