Tropical Storm Eta was frozen in place in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday afternoon, just close enough to Cuba and South Florida that it can continue to douse both with heavy rain throughout the day.
Eta was about 70 miles north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba at 1 p.m. with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said it should begin to inch north Tuesday night, toward Florida. While some additional strengthening is possible in the next day or so, Eta should start to see some weakening Thursday, according to the hurricane center.
Here’s what you need to know:
Where is Eta going? How strong will it be?
On the forecast track, Tropical Storm Eta is expected to approach the Gulf Coast of Florida later this week as a tropical storm, possibly bringing rain, wind and storm surge. Eta’s forecast track shows it weakening into a tropical depression by the time it nears the Florida Panhandle and Alabama this weekend, possibly early Sunday.
The hurricane center said the storm models generally agree that Eta will move north for the next two to three days, but from there they split. Some suggest a northeast path, others go straight north and some hook northwest toward Mississippi and Louisiana. Forecasters said a weaker storm will curve west and a stronger storm will move northeast, although they consider a northeast turn “unlikely.”
Tropical Storm Eta left parts of South Florida flooded. When will the water recede?
What forecasters know is that those who live on Florida’s Gulf Coast should continue monitoring Eta’s progress. They also know that heavy rainfall will continue across western Cuba and South Florida at least through Tuesday night and that there is a flood risk, particularly in areas that are already saturated.
What type of weather is Eta causing?
Swells generated by Eta are forecast to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to the hurricane center.
In terms of rainfall, western Cuba should expect to see an additional three to five inches of new rain Tuesday. South Florida should expect to see an additional one to two inches of new rain, forecasters said. The hurricane center estimates that isolated areas in Cuba will have seen about 25 inches of rain associated with Eta the past few days. In South Florida, isolated areas will have seen 20 inches of rain.
“Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight,” forecasters wrote Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds will also be possible Tuesday in the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth, which are all under a tropical storm watch.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin
The hurricane center is also tracking Subtropical Storm Theta, the record-breaking 29th named storm of the 2020 season, and a tropical wave in the Caribbean.
Forecasters gave the wave a 70% chance of strengthening to a tropical depression in the next five days and a 10% chance of strengthening by Thursday. If it strengthens further into a tropical storm, it would be named Iota.