Bihar election: India's BJP in tight race in key state election

India's governing Bharatiya Janata Party is in a tight race in a key state election, according to early trends.

The fight in Bihar is down to two coalitions led by regional rivals - one of them is the incumbent Janata Dal (United) or JD-U, the BJP's partner.

The alliance, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, has been in power for 15 years.

It's now up against another regional heavyweight, the Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD, which lost power in 2005.

Early results suggest the incumbents are leading in most of the 243 seats, but the RJD-led coalition is close behind. A win requires 122 seats in the 243-seat assembly.

But with most of the 70 million votes yet to be counted, observers say it's still early to draw any conclusions.

More than 20 parties are on the ballot - and if the results end in a hung assembly, one of them could turn kingmaker.

The RJD is leading a "grand alliance" that includes India's main opposition party, Congress, and a clutch of Left parties. Its candidate for chief minister is Tejashwi Yadav, the 31-year-old son of two former chief ministers. His father, Laloo Prasad Yadav, is now serving a jail term for corruption.

Tejashwi Yadav's coalition, initially seen as a dark horse of sorts, drew attention as it dominated the exit polls.

The polls also predicted a wave of a anti-incumbency against Mr Kumar, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term.

He is also doing it amid a pandemic that has cost lives and jobs. Bihar, one of the country's poorest states, has recorded more than 220,000 coronavirus cases and 1,000 deaths so far.

But that didn't stop the state from going ahead with the election. Virtual rallies quickly gave way to crowded arenas as top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mr Kumar and Mr Yadav hit the ground to bolster their campaigns.

The BJP's Hindu nationalist base is concentrated in India's so-called Hindi heartland - states such as Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But Bihar is the only one where the party has never won on its own.

Despite decisive parliamentary victories in 2014 and 2019, the party has failed to script similar wins in state polls.

It has not won a clear majority in any state since elections in Uttar Pradesh four years ago. And in the last two years, it has lost six state elections. It won just one by cobbling together a majority with a regional rival-turned-partner.

But the BJP's patchy electoral record in states is not necessarily indicative of waning popularity, writes our correspondent Soutik Biswas. He says observers believe that it's also the result of local leaders "who appear to lack charisma beside Mr Modi's larger-than-life, presidential personality".