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Vericel Corporation Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

It's been a pretty great week for Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL) shareholders, with its shares surging 18% to US$22.48 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.1% to hit US$32m. Vericel also reported a statutory profit of US$0.08, which was a nice improvement from the loss that the analysts were predicting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Vericel after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Vericel

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vericel from seven analysts is for revenues of US$158.2m in 2021 which, if met, would be a substantial 34% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 7,220% to US$0.24. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$161.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2021. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.6% to US$29.25, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Vericel, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vericel's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Vericel is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vericel. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Vericel analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Vericel that we have uncovered.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.