BENGALURU: With a consistent dip in number of new cases reported daily over the past few days, the
weekly average of fresh infections in
Karnataka has reached
mid-July levels when the pandemic was beginning to spike. Experts warn against complacency and predict a second wave of infections in the next 60-90 days.
The daily average of new cases was under 3,000 for the first time for several weeks in November. The first week registered 20,735 new cases, comparable to 26,992 cases in the week between July 15 and 22.
From the fourth week of July, the state has seen more than 40,000 cases each week, with some reporting more than 65,000 cases.
As of November 7, nearly 95% of the 8.4 lakh Covid patients had recovered in Karnataka and the case fatality rate is 1.3%, better than the national average. Among the top five states in caseload, the CFR is bettered only by that of Andhra (less than 1%).
More testing must be done in rural areas’Dr CN Manjunath, chairperson, state Covid-19 expert committee, said: “Cases have been steadily coming down in the past three weeks. While this is a good trend, the focus on prevention must continue. Going by what has happened in Europe and Maharashtra, a second wave of infections is expected in 60 to 90 days of dip of the first wave.”
Another expert, on condition of anonymity, pointed to the findings of the recently released serosurvey and said several districts in the state have low prevalence and these could see a spike. The expert singled out districts like Gadag, Dharwad and Chikkaballapur. Both health department officials and experts, while pushing for higher testing, said it’s too early to believe the worst is over. The strategy must be to prevent fresh infections, and in line with this, last week, the expert committee recommended that the state not conduct GP elections.
“We must continue with the same level of testing at least till December,” Manjunath said, while some experts said the government must focus on non-urban areas. A majority of testing is in Bengaluru, followed by Mysuru, Mangaluru and Hubballi.