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bluebird bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLUE) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

There's been a notable change in appetite for bluebird bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLUE) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to US$45.89. Statutory losses were a bit smaller than expected, at just US$2.94 per share, even though revenues of US$19m missed analyst expectations by a shocking 24%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on bluebird bio after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for bluebird bio

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After the latest results, the consensus from bluebird bio's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$154.5m in 2021, which would reflect a painful 38% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$11.35 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$168.8m and losses of US$11.65 per share in 2021. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

The consensus price target fell 22% to US$82.16, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values bluebird bio at US$146 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$51.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 38%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 58% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% next year. It's pretty clear that bluebird bio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of bluebird bio's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for bluebird bio going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for bluebird bio that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.