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Hologic, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Simply Wall St
·4 mins read

As you might know, Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLX) just kicked off its latest full-year results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.8% to hit US$3.8b. Hologic also reported a statutory profit of US$4.21, which was an impressive 30% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hologic after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Hologic

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hologic's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$4.61b in 2021, which would reflect a huge 22% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.7% to US$4.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.11 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception after these results, with the analysts noticeably increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Hologic 8.0% to US$84.20on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hologic, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$98.00 and the most bearish at US$66.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hologic's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hologic's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.4%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Hologic to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Hologic following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hologic. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hologic analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hologic (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.