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Oil Drops Below $38 on Surging Virus and Fraught U.S. Election

Ann Koh and James Thornhill
·3 mins read

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell below $38 a barrel amid a surging coronavirus and a lack of clarity from the U.S. election, but was still headed for a weekly gain on signs the OPEC+ alliance will delay easing production cuts.

U.S. crude futures dropped 2.8% Friday, but are still up around 5% for the week. Joe Biden appeared to be on the brink of claiming a victory in the presidential race, but he will probably have to deal with a split Congress. That will make it more difficult to pass a big anti-virus spending package or enact an agenda aimed at moving the U.S. away from fossil fuels. Recounts and legal challenges may also lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty.

See also: U.S. Energy Chiefs Mull What Biden Means for Oil, Renewables

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the leading OPEC+ countries, are pressing other members to extend current supply cuts into next year, instead of the current plan to ease in January. That, along with a surprisingly large drop in American inventories, has underpinned the market this week. OPEC+ will decide on supply levels for next year at a meeting at the end of the month.

The demand outlook is looking increasingly grim as virus cases surge. Greece became the latest European country to declare a national lockdown as road traffic falls across the continent, while there’s a risk of more restrictions in the U.S. Saudi Arabia cut most of its oil pricing for Asia on Thursday, even as the region remains a relative demand bright spot.

“The market is firmly anticipating the U.S. and Europe will go through more restrictive measures to deal with the virus,” said Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “It’s going to be a difficult winter. Expectations are pretty high that we’re going to see lockdowns in the U.S.”

Brent’s futures curve shows there’s still some nervousness about a supply glut, but it’s eased this week. The global crude benchmark’s three-month timespread was $1.11 a barrel in contango, where prompt prices are cheaper than later-dated ones, compared with $1.42 on Monday.

Despite the tepid demand backdrop, Libya is adding supply as its oil industry ramps back up following a truce in the country’s civil war. The North African nation expects to export at least 805,000 barrels a day in November.

Asia looks set to again act as a support for shaky oil markets. China will guarantee a minimum fuel price for its oil refineries in the face of weak global demand, after a similar move earlier this year helped drive a surge in the country’s crude buying.

The market seems to favor a Biden presidency and a Republican-controlled Senate, said Jun Inoue, an economist at Mizuho Research Institute.“Even if the outcome of the presidential election has had a positive impact on crude oil prices, downward pressure from Covid-19 will continue.”

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