Vadodara/ Anand: Wheat prices may touch Rs 2,150 per quintal in April-May 2021. The price forecast ahead of the rabi season has been done based on the current trend in the commodity prices and historical price data.
Anand Agricultural University’s (AAU’s) Centre for Agricultural Market Intelligence has started providing pre-sowing and post-harvest price forecast for five major crops including wheat, cumin, maize, groundnut and cotton under a prestigious World Bank funded project on agriculture market intelligence.
The objectives of this project includes price forecasting and behaviours, export competitiveness, evaluation of e-National Agriculture Market (e-NAM), market institutions and capacity building of faculty, students, farmers and other stake holders.
Last month, wheat was trading at Rs 1,600 per quintal in the open market against Rs 2,200 per quintal in April this year. The market price is around 15% lower than the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 1,975 per quintal declared by the government.
“As per the fourth advance estimates, the total production of wheat in Gujarat amounts to 4,363 thousand tonnes whereas yield is 3,155 kg per hectare. This is higher as compared to production in 2018-19 which stood at 2,407 thousand tonnes while the yield was 3,019 kg per hectare,” said Dr R S Pundir, professor and head of agribusiness economics and policies at AAU’s International Agribusiness Management Institute (IABMI).
AAU’s research team analysed the historical monthly price data of wheat of the last 16 years collected from major markets of Gujarat, considered the current production and yield trends, reviewed the reports from traders.
“Our econometric analysis has revealed that the prices of wheat during April-May 2021 (at the time of harvest) will remain in the range of Rs 330-430 per 20 kg. In other words, the price range will be in the range of Rs 1,650 to Rs 2,150 per quintal,” said Pundir, adding that this price range can be termed as moderate.
“For farmers, it will be a good price as they will get their remunerative cost and they will not have to suffer by growing wheat,” said Pundir, adding that except an abnormal year, wheat prices do not see major fluctuations. The price forecasts of AAU have so far seen 97 % precision.