US Elections: A society divided down the middle!

As Americans go to bed on election night (if at all they do!), they are not sure who their President for the next four years will be. Even though opinion polls had suggested a comfortable lead for Biden, as one got closer to voting day, Trump seemed to be catching up. Whatever trends are now evident it is clear that it will be a close finish like in 2016.

What is also interesting at midnight in the east coast of the United States (around 12noon India time), is that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have taken away any state from their opponent as compared to 2016. This explains the frenzy in the media on the calling of Arizona which was a state won by the Republicans in the last election and could move to the Democrats. Biden's appeal to his supporters to maintain peace and remain hopeful was statesmanlike! President Trump has tweeted about the danger of the effort to steal the election. Both responses are on expected lines and represent the two different approaches by the Presidential hopefuls in this election.

This election clearly provides proof of a society divided down the middle. This divide is mirrored across society in the very many platforms that are visible, including in the media. If one were to surf across television channels this divide is patently visible. The divide between the blue states and red states is clear and the victory of either candidate would depend on a few swing states that could define and decide the verdict. Also clear is the difference between those who sent in their vote prior to election date and those who voted on Election Day. This is something closely to be watched and could swing a trend especially in the swing states. Yet, this divide in the society is visible in other important ways that merit further elaboration.

Rural and Urban America clearly witnesses a divide. Trump seems to have continued to retain his support in rural areas whereas in suburban and urban America the Democrats clearly have an upper hand. If Biden were to win it could well be on account of a strong swing of the suburban vote in his favour. If Trump were to be re-elected he would do so because he held his ground in suburban pockets.

It was clear in 2016 that Trump had done well among younger male White voters who were struggling with securing employment and had limited access to education. If Trump were to win, it implies that the Biden campaign has not swayed a significant chunk of these voters. This also implies a clear divide both among the social and economic classes.

The minority vote seems to remain with Biden. Trump has held on to the votes among much of the White population. The poorer vote seems to be with Biden while the affluent are clearly backing Trump. The middle class could be making the difference here. The result could well hinge on whether the Upper middle class voted more keeping in mind their social class rather than the economic category they belonged to. It would also hinge on whether the lower middle class was convinced of the economic package that Biden promised as part of his campaign.

Some could argue that 2020 seems to be a mirror image of 2016. For this reason too, the media is focused on outlining the trend in 2016 in each district within a state and extrapolating it in 2020. Comparisons are also being made of the votes secured by Hilary Clinton in each district as compared to what Je Biden is garnering. If this trend were to play out in the electoral result, it is clear that not much has changed since 2016 and the social divisions seen in 2016 continue to be the stark reality in 2020 also.

There has been a animated debate in the Indian media as to which candidates victory would be useful from India's perspective. It may be useful to remember that when Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister, Obama was the President in the United States. Modi and Obama got along very well and had a cordial working relationship. When Trump was elected, the leaders of the two countries hit it off very well. Thus both during a Democratic Presidency as well when a Republican President in office, the equations between the leaders of the two countries was cordial and friendly. India's relations with the United States does not necessarily depend on who is elected as the President in the United States but is more a by-product of global developments and their implications for both countries.

It is unclear whether we are returning to the nail biting finish of 2016 or the delayed result of 2008. In 2008, the delay in the declaration of the result in Florida held up the decision on whether it would be Bush or Gore for a few days. So would it be later tonight (India time) or a few more days before we know who will be the next President of the United States is still unclear. Given the strong political acrimony that one has seen, it seems more likely to not merely be a long night for the American citizens but a sunset or two more before the final decision is out.

(Dr Shastri is a student of Politics who is the author of Lal Bahadur Shastri: Politics and Beyond1 published by Rupa and Co in October 2019)