The health officials are keeping their fingers crossed despite a steep drop in COVID-19 cases in October as they are anticipating a second wave.
Citing earlier pandemic experience from the Spanish flu, health officials say that such pandemic has a tendency to resurge with vigour after a brief slump.
In March 1918, the first wave of Spanish flu was observed and then after a lull, the second wave arrived and it was far more deadlier then the first one.
According to Hemalatha from the Department of Microbiology, Andhra University, “so far we have seen how coronavirus spread during the summer and now we have to wait and watch its impact during the winter.” “During summer, the temperature in the city was high and this combined with immunity power of Indians, we have seen high recovery and low death count. Now during winter, the temperature will drop and study says that it may be conducive for its growth,” she said.
Winter effect
“Till date, the research on the virus is still in its nascent stage. We are yet to understand the virus fully and that is why there is a fear among the scientific community on how it will behave during winter,” she said.
‘Three months crucial’
District COVID Special Officer and Principal of Andhra Medical College P.V. Sudhakar also shared a similar opinion. “From September, we have been seeing a drop in cases and in October the cases recorded were below 6,000. But the next three months is crucial as well as critical for the health and scientific community,” he said.
T. Raghava Rao from the Department of Biochemistry, Andhra University, pointed out that any virus changes its characteristics depending on a number of factors and one being the DNA profile of people of a region and other is climate and environment.
“The virus character and mutation were different in Visakhapatnam when compared to those in Hyderabad. We are still learning about it and the next three months (November to January) is important for those who are researching on the Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2),” he said.
Anticipating a second wave, the experts feel that the best way to beat the virus is by practising hygiene and following the basic protocols of wearing a mask, maintaining social distance, keeping away from crowd and sanitising hands on a regular basis.
“In Europe, the second wave has already begun and many countries have imposed lockdown. This is mainly, because people have become complacent after the first wave and we need to tackle this,” said Prof. Sudhakar.
“One of the main reasons for the second wave of Spanish flu was complacency among people,” he said.
According to a few senior health officials, the government coming under economic pressure has opened up everything, right from schools and colleges to cinemas and from travel to running trains and buses.
Strict enforcement
“It is important to address the economic issues, but at the same time we need to focus on strict enforcement and people should learn to take care of themselves and stay safe. It is now in the hands of people to address the pandemic by following the norms,” said Dr. Sudhakar.