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Yahoo Finance 2020 election coverage

Stocks Rise, Dollar Drops as Election Count Begins: Markets Wrap

Adam Haigh and Claire Ballentine
·3 mins read

(Bloomberg) --

U.S. equity futures gained with most Asian stocks and the dollar extended its decline as investors awaited the outcome of the American presidential election.

S&P 500 futures climbed and stocks rose in Japan and South Korea as polls began to close across the country. Speculation is mounting that Americans will get a clear election decision and that Congress will deliver a spending bill. Democratic nominee Joe Biden led President Donald Trump in the final polls. Treasuries fell as benchmark yields passed 0.9%. Oil extended Monday’s gains.

Follow along here for our real-time news updates and analysis.

Meanwhile, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s U.S.-traded shares tumbled 8.1% after China halted the initial public offering of Ant Group Co., in which Alibaba owns about a one-third stake. The yuan pushed higher.

Investors are bracing for the outcome of a divisive election following weeks of speculation that a contested result could roil markets. Polls continue to indicate that Biden is ahead, though the race looks tight in some battleground states, some of which are seeing virus cases soar.

“It’s a reflection of the market’s belief there is not going to be a whole lot of uncertainty after election day,” said Matt Stucky, portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. “The worst outcome for election day is a really uncertain winner scenario where it’s going to take weeks and a lot of legal back and forth before the decision is ultimately made.”

While trades reflecting a Democratic sweep held firm, betting markets aren’t convinced. One gauge slipped to just over 50% odds of the so-called Blue Wave -- that Democrats oust President Trump and take Congressional majorities. Traders hedged prospects of post-vote volatility, driving a measure of expected swings in China’s yuan to its highest level in more than nine years.

“I don’t think the market has priced in the uncertainty and volatility that we may face finishing up this election,” Christopher Ailman, chief investment officer of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), said on Bloomberg TV. “Longer term the market is in a good place, but right now I am very cautious.”

These are some key events coming up:

EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.Federal Reserve policy decision on Thursday.The key U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due Friday.Earnings are due this week from companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., AstraZeneca Plc, Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corp.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures added 0.6% as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The index rose 1.8% on Tuesday.Japan’s Topix index advanced 1%.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.1%.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%.The yen fell 0.2% to 104.65 per dollar.The offshore yuan traded at 6.6625 per dollar, up 0.3%.The euro bought $1.1751, up 0.3%.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 0.89%.Australia’s 10-year yield gained nine basis points to 0.86%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.4% to $38.54 a barrel.Gold was at $1,915.89 an ounce, up 0.3%.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Latest Stories

  • Jack Ma's Blunt Words Just Cost Him $35 Billion

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As a result, some decided to go so big they are not allowed to fail. “As the Chinese like to say, if you borrow 100,000 yuan from the bank, you are a bit scared; if you borrow a million yuan, both you and the bank are a little nervous; but if you take a 1 billion yuan loan, you are not scared at all, the bank is,” Ma said. The consequences came this week. On Monday, Beijing’s top financial watchdogs summoned Ma and dressed him down. Beijing also issued draft rules on online micro lending, stipulating stricter capital requirements and operational rules for some of Ant Group Co.’s consumer credit businesses. But the big shocker came on Tuesday night. The Shanghai Stock Exchange suspended Ant’s listing on its Star board, citing Monday's meeting and subsequent regulatory changes. Ant then said in a filing it would suspend its Hong Kong IPO as well. The fintech giant was scheduled to start trading on Thursday. The news sparked a slide in Alibaba shares on Tuesday in New York, while dragging down other Chinese companies’ U.S.-listed stocks.What Ma said was a bit sensational, perhaps. But he was right. China’s bankers are so averse to extending credit to smaller borrowers that Beijing redefined “inclusive financing” to make its banks’ loan books look prettier. In fact, it’s been so difficult for small businesses to obtain bank credit in the last decade that they have become hard wired not to invest for the future. Here’s the latest tidbit of evidence: In the third quarter, even as China’s economy recovered and 86% of 300 smaller manufacturers CLSA spoke to became profitable, most remained wary. A record-breaking 59% of their capital expenses went into mere “regular maintenance,” the brokerage found.Ma’s words were blunt, but these phrases, such as “pawn shops,” are not his concoctions. Bureaucrats at the People’s Bank of China, for instance, had used the same words themselves. So why is Ma being singled out? Could it be that Ant is too profitable and is now being targeted? Ant is raising at least $34.5 billion in an IPO that attracted more than $3 trillion of retail orders. Meanwhile, regional banks are still in the doghouse, struggling and sometimes being restructured because they lack capital buffers. In the fast-growing consumer credit business, Ant is essentially a matchmaker while banks lend and put aside cash in case some loans go sour. Fintech giants are making much more than lenders, city commercial banks complained to local media. Ant’s vast consumer base appreciates its small loan offerings. But going forward, to appease its banks, Beijing may want to level the regulatory playing field. For instance, Ant may no longer operate just as a matchmaker and might be asked to keep 30% of the loans on its balance sheet, compared with only about 2% now. That should have been no problem because Ant’s IPO would have brought in billions of dollars of capital for loan provisions.In its statement, the Shanghai exchange cited the changing regulatory landscape as one reason Ant no longer qualified for a listing. But in reality, nothing has changed. Since 2017, Beijing’s watchdogs have been debating whether to allow online micro lenders to take a simple loan facilitation model or require them to put away loan provisions. This new draft rule is just a continuation of the debate. At the opening of his speech, Ma admitted he was conflicted as to whether to attend the forum and speak up. Now he probably regrets it. But here’s the thing: If China is serious about financial innovation, “inclusive financing” or the digital yuan, let the man who pioneered the business and made billions along the way share his experiences and thoughts. If Ma says systemic risk is not China’s Achilles’ heel, hear him out. 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However, timber itself has maintained higher prices as home builders in the United States have seen increased demand. A lot of this new demand is generated from individuals moving out of cities into suburban areas.In the most recent quarter, Q3 2020 EBITDA for CatchMark Timber was above expectations coming in at $12.4MM versus $11MM consensus. The above-expectation earnings were attributed to cost controls from logging and hauling as well as SG&A costs. At the same time that CatchMark reported Q1 earnings, it also declared the Q3 dividend. The payment remains steady at 13.5 cents per share, yielding a solid 6%. The company has a 6-year history of keeping up its dividend payments, in all economic conditions.Adding to the good news, RBC Capital analyst Paul Quinn, rated 5-stars with TipRanks, has upgraded CTT to Outperform (i.e. Buy), while keeping his price target at $10. 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