Covid-19: Cities getting worse as winter approaches

While Delhi recording over 5,000 infections daily for four days in a row is certainly worrying, an FE analysis shows that the city’s problems had started long before the infections started rising. Since the third week of September, Delhi has witnessed an increase in cases with serious conditions.

On September 14, 2.6% of active cases in the city were on ventilators, and another 2.7% were in the ICU. But on October 31, this proportion had increased, as Delhi recorded 2.7% people on ventilators and 4.3% in ICUs.

However, Delhi is not the only city to experience this trend. Despite active cases falling from 30,271 on September 14 to 18,438 on October 31, the proportion of serious cases in Mumbai has also increased. While on September 14, only 2.9% of active cases required ventilators and 4.7% were admitted to ICUs, on October 31, this ratio had increased to 5% and 8%, respectively. By September end, only 3.8% of active cases required ventilators and 6.5% were in ICU.

Similarly, in case of Pune, data from PMC show proportion of cases increased on ventilators from 2.5% to 6% between September 14 and October 31, while people admitted in ICUs increased from 2.7 to 4.4%.

As winters near, cases are expected to increase further and rising ventilators and ICU admissions will be a grave concern for most cities. Delhi was earlier asked to prepare a contingency plan if the city starts recording 15,000 daily infections.

On October 31, Delhi recorded 5,062 new infections.