Military action in Nagorno-Karabakh(also called Artsakh), a region disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, for the last one month has resulted in the death of over a hundred civilians and Armenian fighters. The two countries have fought over the region for decades, the current conflict is being seen as one of the most serious in recent years.

Disputed region

Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnically Armenian enclave within the territory of Azerbaijan, internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory. But the people of Nagorno-Karabakh want to govern themselves or to join Armenia, as they once voted to do. Years of clashes followed between Azerbaijan forces and Armenian separatists. The violence lasted into the 1990s, leaving tens and thousands dead and displacing hundreds of thousands. In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, by which time ethnic Armenians had taken control of the region.

While the area remains in Azerbaijan, it is today governed by separatist Armenians who have declared it a republic called the “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast”. While the Armenian government does not recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, it supports the region politically and militarily.

Even after the 1994 peace deal, the region has been marked by regular exchanges of fire. In 2016, it saw a Four-Day War before Russia mediated peace. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, chaired by France, Russia and the US, has tried to get the two countries to reach a peace agreement for several years.

Fresh conflict

It began on the morning of September 27, since when each country has claimed to have inflicted serious loss on its opponent. What’s different about the current flare-up is that this is the first time that both countries have proclaimed martial law. Media reports have noted that the clashes were possibly a fallout of Azerbaijan’s bid to reclaim some territories occupied by separatist Armenians.

International standing

The conflict is getting worldwide attention because of the involvement of regional rivals Turkey and Russia. Muslim-majority Turkey backs Azerbaijan, and recently condemned Christian-majority Armenia for not resolving the issue through peaceful negotiations. Turkey recently declared unconditional support to Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.

Russia and Turkey also back opposite sides in the civil wars playing out in Syria and Libya and Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan may be seen as an attempt to counter Russia’s influence in the region of South Caucasus.

Other countries, including the US, have limited their participation to appeals for maintaining peace so far. For all countries, the region is an important transit route for the supply of oil and natural gas to the European Union.

What now

International mediation has failed to bring about a breakthrough in the region. The US tried to mediate and solve the conflict 20 years ago but they quickly dropped it off their agenda after the terrorist attacks of 2001.

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s Prime Minister since 2018, seemed open to talks when he came to office but has since reverted to a more rigid position. In a speech last year he called for Nagorno-Karabakh to be unified with Armenia. Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev has since ruled out negotiations.

In a nutshell

• Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian-controlled enclave, recognised internationally from the past three decades as a part of Azerbaijan.

• The fear is that Azerbaijan is now bent on taking back the entire enclave.

• International mediation has failed to bring about a breakthrough in the region.

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