Large parts of South and Central Bay of Bengal, which receive incoming circulations from the South China Sea/West Pacific, remain cooler than normal, not allowing for ideal conditions to grow these circulations to low-pressure areas and escalate the North-East monsoon.
The only exception is a cyclonic circulation that has been persisting over the North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts (the coastal waters here warmer than normal), which was responsible for the heavy rainfall over Chennai and neighbourhood on Thursday.
Scattered rainfall forecast
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm and lightning over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next five with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu until tomorrow (Saturday).
It would be isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala on Sunday and Monday and over South Interior Karnataka on Monday during which the cyclonic circulation in the Bay would keep changing its orientation even as a fresh circulation takes shape off the Kerala-Kanniyakumari coast.
Isolated over North Tamil Nadu
The Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, said in its outlook that heavy rain is likely to occur at isolated places over North Coastal Tamil Nadu today (Friday). An extended IMD outlook for next week (November 4-6) sees scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka.
Meanwhile, Chennai's famed weather bloggers were not enthusiastic about the prospects of the North-East monsoon for the next few days, per latest tweets.
https://twitter.com/ChennaiRains/status/1321992519995985920?s=20
https://twitter.com/chennai_updates/status/1321618022738456576?s=20
Chennai Weather Updates on Twitter “Many have a feeling that rains will resume in #Chennai post this spell today, around early next week But from what I see, #chennairains will happen once again around 7th or 8th November only Dry air along the coast will not allow rain bands to thrive. Some close misses likely” twitter.com |
|---|
https://twitter.com/JW_Chennai/status/1321699958731366401?s=20
Jaswanth Weatherman(Welcome NEM) on Twitter “Break in #ChennaiRains possible as no favourable Rain bands in sea. Always mid night to early morning is the peak period during and rains will reduce as day progresses #NEM #chennairain” twitter.com |
|---|
https://twitter.com/chennaiweather/status/1322009048326156289?s=20