Dems look to ride anti-Trump wave, expand supermajorities

All 200 seats in the Massachusetts Legislature are on the ballot this election cycle, but only one-quarter of them feature contested general elections.

In the 160-seat House, 34 incumbents face a major-party opponent, an independent challenger or both, while there are contested elections in another eight districts where lawmakers are retiring. Voters in eight districts in the 40-seat Senate, which does not feature any open seats, will see two or more candidates on their ballots.

While challenges to incumbents are already rare on Beacon Hill, the minority party drew them this cycle at a rate disproportionate to the ground it holds: more than half of Republican seats will see competitive general elections, while for Democratic seats, that ratio is less than one in five.

Nineteen out of 35 Republican-held districts have Democrats, independents or both on the Nov. 3 ballot, while voters in 30 out of 163 Democrat-held districts will see Republican or independent candidates on the ballot. In other words, Democrats are challenging Republicans at a higher rate, which may spell trouble for GOP candidates who are at risk of getting swept away in an expected wave of voting against President Donald Trump.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has consistently polled with a double-digit lead over Trump in the Bay State. An Emerson College/WHDH poll of 763 Massachusetts likely voters published on Aug. 28 found Biden with 69 percent support compared to Trump's 31 percent.

Republicans saw their slim ranks whittled in 2018, and the GOP is at risk next week of losing even more ground after letting two of its Senate seats and one House seat slip away to Democrats in special elections this year.

The Legislature's lone independent lawmaker, Rep. Susannah Whipps of Athol, also faces a Democratic challenge from fellow Athol resident William LaRose.

Democrats have held a supermajority in both branches of the Legislature for three decades. Republicans last represented at least a third of the membership in either chamber, enough to sustain a veto, during the 1991-1992 session after they won 16 Senate seats in the 1990 elections. They lost that edge in the 1992 elections.

In the House, Democrats currently hold 127 seats, compared to 31 for Republicans. Whipps had been enrolled as a Republican before switching to independent in 2017, while another House seat previously held by Democrat Rep. John Velis remains vacant.

Democrats have an even bigger advantage in the Senate with 36 of 40 seats. The other four Senate districts are represented by Republicans.

The last time Republicans held a majority in both branches was the 1940s, and heading into Tuesday's contests, the main question is whether Democrats will manage to even further expand their supermajorities.

Sitting Lawmakers Challenged

Only 42 lawmakers will need to fend off challengers to secure another term in the Legislature.

Setting aside contested races featuring only one major-party candidate and independents, Democrats are vying to flip 15 House seats and three Senate seats from Republicans, while Republicans are challenging Democratic holds on 19 House districts and four Senate districts.

Among districts with Republican representatives and Democrat challengers, 11 voted for Hillary Clinton for president in 2016. The largest margins were in the First Essex District, where Clinton won by about 23 points, held by Republican Rep. James Kelcourse of Newburyport. Kelcourse faces a challenge from Democratic candidate Amber Hewett of Newburyport, a clean energy advocate with the National Wildlife Foundation.

The other 10 Republicans in Clinton-won districts are House Minority Leader Brad Jones of North Reading, plus Reps. Timothy Whelan of Brewster, Fred "Jay" Barrows of Mansfield, William Crocker of Barnstable, Shawn Dooley of Norfolk, Leonard Mirra of Georgetown, Sheila Harrington of Groton, Elizabeth Poirier of North Attleborough, Mathew Muratore of Plymouth, and David DeCoste of Norwell.

Republicans are running in six Democrat-held House districts that former Rep. Geoff Diehl carried in his 2018 race against U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Those include the Sixth Plymouth District, represented by Rep. Josh Cutler of Pembroke and challenged by former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown aide Tatyana Semyrog of Duxbury, which Diehl won by 11 points, and the Twelfth Plymouth District, represented by Rep. Kathleen LaNatra of Kingston and challenged by Halifax School Committee member Summer Schmaling, that Diehl won by 9 points.

Fellow Democrats representing House districts that Diehl won in his U.S. Senate campaign are Reps. Patrick Kearney of Scituate, Theodore Speliotis of Danvers, Jonathan Zlotnik of Gardner, and David Robertson of Tewksbury.

In the Senate, Democrat Sen. Anne Gobi of Spencer will attempt to fend off a rematch challenge from Sturbridge Republican Steven Hall in a district that opted for Trump and Diehl each by 9 points.

Larger races are not always direct indicators of smaller legislative contests, though -- for example, the First Essex District represented by Kelcourse has historically flipped between selecting Democrat and Republican state representatives every few cycles.

Not all regions are equally competitive, with challenges concentrated in southeast and central Massachusetts.

Half of the 18 House seats in Plymouth and Barnstable counties will have contested general elections, as will a third of Worcester County's 18 districts, about a quarter of the 33 in Norfolk and Essex counties, and a fifth of the 37 in Middlesex County.

On either end of Massachusetts, competition for the House is nowhere to be seen: all 26 House seats across Berkshire County, Hampshire County and Suffolk County will be unopposed on Nov. 3.

Eight Open Seats Decided

At least eight new members of the Massachusetts House are set to be decided in the general election in districts where sitting lawmakers are not seeking re-election. Given the Legislature's massive incumbency advantage, open seats are the predominant route that new elected officials take to Beacon Hill.

-- 4th HAMPDEN: The Fourth Hampden District was represented for much of the session by Velis, a Westfield Democrat, but was left vacant after he won a special election to the Senate in May. Three candidates, all Westfield residents, are on the ballot: Democrat Matt Garlo, Republican Kelly Pease and Independent Compassionate Conservative Ethan Flaherty. Garlo graduated from Siena College in May 2019 with a degree in sociology, pre-law and political science and worked in public relations before running. Pease worked as an aide to former Republican Sen. Donald Humason, who left partway through the term to become Westfield's mayor. Flaherty is a recent high school graduate. Between 1978 and 2012, the cycle before Velis first won, Republican candidates won every election to represent the Fourth Hampden District. The area has continued to show Republican support even with a Democratic state representative in office: it backed Trump by 4.1 points in 2016 and Diehl by 5.6 points in 2018. Velis snagged a Senate seat that had been held by the GOP, and this is a seat where Republicans could seek revenge.

-- 5th BARNSTABLE: One of two open seats currently held by Republicans, the race to succeed Rep. Randy Hunt of Sandwich features Democrat candidate James "Jim" Dever of Sandwich and Republican candidate Steven Xiarhos of Barnstable. Dever, a labor attorney at the National Association of Government Employees, served for six years on the Sandwich School Committee. Xiarhos worked for the Yarmouth Police Department for four decades, eventually serving as deputy chief before retiring in December 2019.

-- 14th BRISTOL: Two North Attleborough candidates, Republican John Simmons and Democrat Adam Scanlon, will face off for the seat currently held by outgoing Republican Rep. Elizabeth Poirier. Simmons, an Army National Guard veteran and attorney, is a member of North Attleborough's Town Council. So, too, is Scanlon, who also works in social services and is enrolled in a master's program at Northeastern University.

-- 12th WORCESTER: Three candidates are in the running in a district where Democrat Rep. Harold Naughton is not seeking re-election. The Democrat attempting to hold the seat, Northborough's Meg Kilcoyne, has worked as Naughton's legislative director for the past 10 years. Lancaster Republican Susan Smiley, who previously worked in the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs and also has years of experience working on defense contracts, is a member of Lancaster's Finance Committee and a former selectwoman. The third candidate, Green-Rainbow hopeful Charlene DiCalogero of Berlin, has worked in nonprofit and higher education grants administration. Whichever candidate wins, the district will be represented by a woman in the state House of Representatives for the first time, according to MassLive.

-- 13th ESSEX: The most crowded legislative field in this year's general election features two major-party candidates and three independent candidates who are vying for the seat that Democrat Rep. Theodore Speliotis is giving up. One candidate hoping to succeed Speliotis is his predecessor: former state Rep. Sally Kerans of Danvers, who served from 1991 to 1997, is the Democratic nominee on the ballot. Peabody Republican Robert May, who runs his own electronic components company, will attempt to flip the district. Three non-major party opponents are on the ballot, all Danvers residents: independent Bill Bates, a former School Committee member who worked in constituent services for Speliotis; independent Jason Guida, a former prosecutor who led the Massachusetts Firearms Record Bureau; and non-party candidate Christopher Keohane, a small business owner.

-- 3rd WORCESTER: Fitchburg Republican Glenn Fossa will compete with Fitchburg Democrat Michael Kushmerek to fill the Third Worcester District seat currently held by Democrat Rep. Stephan Hay. Fossa spent two and a half decades in law enforcement, most of it at the Fitchburg Police Department, and has owned a car dealership since 2005. Kushmerek has served as the City Council's president since 2016 and works at Northeastern University, leading fundraising for the school's College of Professional Studies. If Fossa wins, it will be the first time a Republican holds the 3rd Worcester seat since Edward Harrington in 1976.

-- 7th HAMPDEN: Two Ludlow residents are hoping to replace outgoing Democrat Rep. Thomas Petrolati. Democrat Jake Oliveira is a prominent official in the town's political hierarchy, serving as chair of its Democratic Town Committee since 2008 and on its school committee since 2009. As a student, he was a founding member of the PHENOM advocacy group, and today he works as assistant executive officer of the Massachusetts State Universities Council of Presidents. The Republican candidate, James "Chip" Harrington, is a program manager focusing on recovery at the state Department of Correction and part-time police officer. He is also a member of the Ludlow School Committee, and previously worked as one of Petrolati's aides.

-- 9th HAMPDEN: The district currently represented by Democrat Rep. Jose Tosado is the only district among the eight open seats that has a contested general election but does not feature both a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot. Springfield City Councilor Orlando Ramos won the Democratic primary election, and he will face unenrolled candidate Robert Underwood, a computer programmer and analyst who is a member of the Libertarian Association of Massachusetts.

The winners of those races will join the seven candidates who won primary elections for open seats and do not face any declared opponents in the general election, effectively handing them early victories.

Special Election Rematches

Four of the five seats legislative districts that were filled earlier this year in special elections will feature Nov. 3 rematches.

In each case, a now-incumbent Democrat will once again face off against the Republican whom they defeated in the special election: Rep. Dan Sena of Acton versus Catherine Clark of Lunenburg in the 37th Middlesex District; Rep. Carol Doherty of Taunton versus Kelly Dooner of Taunton in the 3rd Bristol District; Sen. Susan Moran of Falmouth versus Jay McMahon of Bourne in the Plymouth and Barnstable District; and Sen. John Velis of Westfield versus John Cain of Southwick in the Second Hampden and Hampshire District.

The fifth special-election winner, Rep. Kate Lipper-Garabedien of Melrose, faces no opposition as she seeks her first full term.

Democratic candidates topped all five special elections this session, breaking Republican holds on the two Senate seats and the Third Bristol District House seat.