New Delhi, Oct 22 (UNI) India's exports grew 4 per cent in September and would recover further in the fourth quarter, says the UN trade and development arm, UNCTAD.

In the third quarter of 2020, exports had fallen 6.1 per cent, compared to the same period in 2019, an update on global trade released on Wednesday shows.

Earlier on October 16, the commerce ministry said exports increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year to $27.58 billion in September.

As of July, the fall in world trade was sharpest in South and West Asia where exports dropped 29 per cent and imports declined 23 per cent, UNCTAD said.

In contrast, China's exports recorded a fall in the initial months of the Corona pandemic, stabilised in the second quarter and rebounded sharply in the third, with an year-on-year growth rate of nearly 10 per cent.

The report said global trade recorded a 5 per cent drop in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the same period last year.

This marks an improvement on the 19 per cent year-on-year plunge recorded in the second quarter, and UNCTAD expects the frail recovery to continue in the fourth quarter, with a preliminary forecast of minus three per cent compared with the last quarter of 2019.

Depending on how the COVID-19 pandemic evolves in the winter months, the UN arm expects the value of global trade to contract by 7 to 9 per cent with respect to 2019.

“The uncertain course of the pandemic will continue aqgravating trade prospects in the coming months,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said.

Although a 7 to 9 per cent decrease would be a negative finish for the year, Kituyi highlighted that it’s a much more positive result than was expected in June, when UNCTAD had projected a 20 per cent year-on-year drop for 2020.

"Despite some 'green shoots' we can't rule out a slowdown in production in certain regions or sudden increases in restrictive policies," Kituyi said.

Since then, trade trends have improved, primarily thanks in part to the earlier-than-expected resumption of economic activities in Europe and east Asia.

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