New Delhi: A government-appointed committee has said that India has crossed the coronavirus peak and predicted that the epidemic could be brought under control by early next year, possibly by the end of February 2021, if all measures are followed. But the onset of winter and the festival season ahead may increase susceptibility to the infection and laxity at this point can again lead to a spike.

Keeping a “steady declining trend”, the number of active coronavirus cases in India stayed below eight lakhs for the second consecutive day on Sunday and comprised 10.45 per cent of the total caseload.  There are 7,83,311 active cases of coronavirus infections now. The total number of recoveries has surged to 65,97,209 and are 58,13,898 more than active cases. The Covid-19 recovery rate in the country has also risen to 88.03 per cent.

As many as 22 states and Union territories, including Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh and Chandigarh, have less than 20,000 active cases. Also, 10 states and Union territories, including Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Telangana, Rajasthan and Odisha, have over 20,000 but less than 50,000 active cases, while three states -- Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala -- have more than 50,000 active infections. “The declining trend of active cases is complemented by the unbroken rising number of recovered cases,” an official said.

A total of 72,614 coronavirus patients recovered and were discharged in a day while 61,871 new infections were reported in the same time. As many as 79 per cent of new recovered cases are observed to be concentrated in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. Maharashtra has contributed the highest number, with over 14,000 single-day recoveries.

In its study titled “Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts”,  the government-appointed  Covid-19 India National Supermodel committee headed by Prof. M. Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad) has, however, warned that relaxation in safety measures can lead to a significant rise in coronavirus cases. It can be as much as “up to 26 lakh cases a month”, the committee said, adding that only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far.

The committee said that if all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year, with minimal active cases by February end. The total number of infections by the time the epidemic ends could be about 105 lakhs (10.5 million).

The committee, comprising eminent scientists and academics, said the initial coronavirus-induced lockdown had saved a large number of lives and avoided creating widespread panic.  It said the number of Covid-19-related deaths by August 2020 would have been over 25 lakhs if there had been no lockdown at all, and also that there would have been over 1.4 crore symptomatic infections by June 2020.