Nagpur: The Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak for 5-6 weeks in the district, if data released by the district civil surgeon and conclusions drawn from it by an expert are considered.
The district has registered decline in all parameters — new cases, deaths, test positivity rate (TPR) and active cases — of Covid-19 in the first two weeks of October. The numbers are almost same to that registered in second and third week of August when cases and deaths had starting increasing.
For 5-6 weeks, from end of August third week to September end, there were maximum cases and deaths.
As per the district civil surgeon, the district registered 4,418 positive cases for a daily average of 631 in the second week (8-14) of October. There were 165 deaths for a daily average of 23 during the week.
In second week (8-14) of August, cases were 4,998 for a daily average of 714 and fatalities 178 for a daily average of 25.
Cases increased to 6,001 in the third week of August for a daily average of 857 and deaths to 206 for a daily average of 29. In October first week, there were 6,069 cases for a daily average of 867 and deaths 194 for a daily average of 27.
From fourth week of August to last week of September, there were 10,000-12,000 cases per week and 320-400 deaths.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde told TOI that data for the district clearly shows that the pandemic was at its peak for 5-6 weeks, from third week of August till last week of September. “Some big cities in India witnessed peak of 6-10 weeks,” he said.
“All Covid-19 parameters are likely to decline further in the coming days,” he said and added, “But there are chances of second wave in the district, as being predicted, from January.
On predictions regarding the second wave, Dr Shinde said the district has very low humidity in winter, especially during last days of December. “Also, people prefer to stay indoors. Before the season starts, there are chances people will meet during festivals. If guidelines are not followed, the district might witness second wave from January. But it may not be as intense as that in August and September,” he said.
Divisional commissioner Sanjeev Kumar had earlier told TOI that peak of Covid-19 in the district is over and the curve is bending.
The TPR has dropped significantly in the second week (8-14) of October. It was 10.4% as there were 4,418 positive cases as against 42,573 tests. The administration had taken efforts to again increase number of tests.
Due to less cases, the case fatality rate (CFR) slightly increased to 3.7% despite decline in number of deaths.
There have been less than 700 cases for the last eight days and below 1,000 for the last 15 days. Active cases dropped below 7,000 on Friday. The recoveries were more than positive cases in 25 out of last 26 days.