7 Vid dists cross projected cases, Nagpur stays below

Nagpur: Seven Vidarbha districts have already crossed the number of Covid-19 positive cases projected for them by the central government. Nagpur is among four districts where cases are less than projected number.
TOI on September 24 had reported about the projection made by the Centre. Considering the growth rate upto September 13, the Centre had anticipated cases in 35 districts of the state for a period of one month upto October 13. The projection was done so that the authorities could make proper arrangements.
The Centre had projected 98,663 cases in Nagpur district by October 13. The district actually registered 87,890 cases or 10,773 less than projected. Nagpur is the only district with such a huge difference in actual and projected figures.
The growth rate in Nagpur was at its peak in first and second week of September. There were 24,163 cases in August or a daily average of 779. Between September 1 and 7, there were 11,477 cases with daily average shooting up to 1,640. In second week cases were even higher at 12,441 or a daily average of 1,777.
They began declining from third week of September which recorded 11,634 or 1,662 per day. Last ten days of September saw 12,905 cases. Highest decline is in October. There were 9,878 cases in 13 days or 760 per day.
Divisional commissioner Sanjeev Kumar and infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde had stated district will peak upto September second week. The curve started to flatten in third week of September and bend with beginning of October.
The number of tests had also gone down in the district. Average tests were 5,655 per day in August and increased to 7,025 per day in first week of September and 7,741 per day in second week. In last ten days of Sept, average tests declined to 5,542 per day and improved slightly to 6,036 in October.
Still, the district is having more cases than remaining 10 districts of Vidarbha put together.
Nagpur was among only district of the division to register fewer cases than projected. Gadchiroli district is the only one in Vidarbha to register almost double the cases projected. Chandrapur, Wardha, Gondia and Bhandara recorded higher than projected cases.
Among five districts in Amravati division, Akola and Washim registered slightly higher cases than projection whereas Amravati, Akola and Buldhana remained slightly less.
Due to high difference in Nagpur district, cumulative cases in 11 districts of Vidarbha were slightly less than projection.