The decision of Jose K. Mani faction of the Kerala Congress (M) to work in league with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) “without setting any condition” appeared to be a harbinger of further political realignment ahead of the local body elections in Kerala.
Mr. Mani seemed to have set the potential political shifts in motion by publicly severing his party’s 39-year-old association with the United Democratic Front (UDF) on Wednesday.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has welcomed Mr. Mani’s decision and said the LDF would meet to discuss the future of the arrangement.
The CPI, which had expressed reservations about Mr. Mani’s admission to the LDF earlier, has not reacted to the development openly. The party seemed cautious and secretive about its intentions ahead of the LDF leadership conclave.
Political heft
The CPI(M) calculates that Mr. Mani’s “political heft” in central Travancore could tip the scales in its favour in the local body elections and later during the Assembly polls in 2021.
The party also felt Mr. Mani’s abandonment of the UDF had accelerated the political decline of the coalition in the crucial election year.
The growing hope of an LDF entry has reportedly helped Mr. Mani to prevent desertions from his group and close ranks against his KC(M) rival P.J. Joseph.
However, Mr. Mani’s move to relinquish the Rajya Sabha seat he had won on the UDF ticket could spell trouble for the LDF.
Pala seat
The settlement has triggered speculation that Mr. Mani would make a pitch for the Pala Assembly seat now held by the present MLA Mani. C. Kappan of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a long-time LDF ally.
The UDF felt that a row over the Pala seat would sow seeds of disaffection in the ruling front and cause Mr. Kappan to defect to the Congress-led Opposition front.
UDF attempt
UDF convener M. M. Hassan attempted to make hay out of the perceived restlessness in Mr. Kappan’s camp by stating that the NCP leader had sought an accommodation with the alliance and parleys were in progress with Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala.
Mr. Chennithala refused to elaborate on Mr. Hassan’s claim. However, a Congress leader pointed out the NCP was an ally of the Congress since 1999.
The BJP has also sensed an opportunity in Mr. Mani’s defection. It felt that the UDF had now become an arrangement comprising the Congress and the IUML primarily.
Party president K. Surendran said Mr. Mani’s exit had weakened the UDF and left the field open for an electoral battle between the NDA and LDF in central Travancore.