Coronavirus: Covid spike warning if schools and pubs stay open

Stormont's leaders have been warned Covid-19 infection rates will keep rising if both schools and the hospitality sector remain open, BBC News NI has learned.

They have also been told expanding tighter measures currently in place in the Derry City and Strabane council area across NI will be "insufficient".

The warnings are contained in a paper from Health Minister Robin Swann.

The executive will meet later, amid pressure to impose new restrictions.

Health officials have suggested measures should last between four to six weeks to have the greatest effect.

But there are tensions between the executive's five-party power-sharing coalition about the duration and nature of any further restrictions.

The executive has brought forward its usual weekly meeting from Thursday to address the crisis.

The official document seen by BBC News NI states that, based on the latest scientific advice, "a package of significant interventions... will be required to prevent a further exponential rise in the virus".

"Single wider interventions are unlikely to be sufficient," it adds.

There will only be a reduction in Covid-19 cases and people being admitted to hospital for treatment if the reproduction rate (R-number) is below one, the document adds.

The R-number represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single infected person.

In Northern Ireland, it is currently estimated to be at about 1.5.

"The decrease in the epidemic will be greater the further R is below one and the longer that is maintained," says the paper.

"The peak number of hospitalisations will be reduced, provided that an intervention to reduce R to under 1 is made early this week."

Delaying the introduction of restrictions by another week could result in an extra 100 inpatients in NI's hospitals, officials are understood to have warned.

Going back to full lockdown, but keeping schools open, would reduce the R-number to a "little less than 1", says the document, citing modelling from a range of UK groups.

A full lockdown with schools closed and the hospitality sector remaining open would result in an R-number possibly a little higher or lower than one, it adds.

"It is not considered likely that R can be less than one with both schools and hospitality open," says the document.

There is clear evidence recent measures, such as household restrictions, have had some impact on reducing the rate of transmission, it adds.

But it warns about the "counter effects" of executive decisions to open higher and further education colleges and drink-only pubs.

It is understood the health department wants any new measures in force by this Friday at the latest, but the executive will have the final say on any decisions.

On Monday, a further 877 cases were recorded by the department, bringing Northern Ireland's total to 21,035 - more than a quarter of which have been recorded in the past seven days.

The department's death toll stands at 591.

According to departmental data, there are 140 Covid inpatients in NI's hospitals and 22 patients in intensive care, 15 of whom are being ventilated.

In the Derry City and Strabane council area, the UK's worst-hit area, the Covid infection rate is 919 per 100,000 of the population in the past week.

Belfast has the eighth-highest rate of infection in the UK, with 432 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending 9 October, according to figures just released from the BBC Data unit.

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Tighter restrictions have been in force there since 5 October, but the Western Trust said hospital admissions were doubling every three to four days.

Stormont health officials have expressed alarm at the situation, saying that if wider actions are not implemented by Friday, there will be serious implications for the health service.

In England, a new three-tier system has been introduced with different areas put into one of three levels - medium, high and very high.

The DUP has called for more evidence to be produced to support the proposals advocating NI-wide restrictions.

On Monday, the party's Westminster leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he preferred using localised measures in hotspot areas, as opposed to wider measures across Northern Ireland.

He did not entirely rule out NI-wide restrictions but said he needed to be convinced that "closing businesses and schools will stop the spread of this virus".

There is speculation that schools could be given an extended half-term break, but Education Minister Peter Weir has said it was critical that schools remained open.

He said this was so pupils are not put at a disadvantage to students in Great Britain or the Republic of Ireland, where longer closures have not been announced.

On Monday, Mr Swann, of the Ulster Unionist Party, said decisive action needed to be taken by the executive immediately, echoing a sentiment from Sinn Féin's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill, who also called for more financial assistance to "support workers, families and business in these challenging times".

Alliance and the SDLP have also spoken in favour of wider restrictions to tackle the spiralling number of cases, but have urged Westminster to provide further "financial firepower" to Stormont.

The range of views within the executive means that reaching a decision on Tuesday on further restrictions will be challenging.