Covid: Local lockdowns 'may not be enough' as cases near peak

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Local lockdowns may not be enough to curb a rise in Covid-19 cases, which could soon be back to levels seen in April, the health minister has said.

Vaughan Gething said there was "growing concern" the restrictions may not be enough to stop the spread of the virus.

Seventeen areas of Wales are currently under local lockdown restrictions.

There were more than 100 cases per 100,000 people in Wales over the past week and Mr Gething said there were more than 330 people in hospital.

He warned Covid cases in Wales could be back to peak levels seen in the spring within two weeks.

The so-called R rate - the number of people infected by each new case - was now at 1.37, he said. R needs to drop below 1 for case numbers to begin falling.

The county of Wales with the highest case rate is Merthyr Tydfil, with 220.5 cases per 100,000 people.

However, this is only the 55th highest rate in the UK, with Derry City and Strabane District Council's area in Northern Ireland - 871 cases per 100,000 - and Nottingham - 830 - the two worst-hit areas.

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Speaking at the Welsh Government's coronavirus briefing, Mr Gething said "all measures", on both local and national levels were under consideration.

He said: "The measures we have put in place at both a local and a national level to date have helped to keep the spread of the virus under check.

"But there is growing concern these will not be enough to help us through the winter because the virus is spreading so quickly.

"We could see coronavirus infections reach the same level as the spring peak in just a couple of weeks.

"I do not want to scare people but I do want people to understand that we face a potentially difficult few months ahead of us."

Mr Gething also said he was "deeply disappointed" that prime minister Boris Johnson had not made it illegal to travel in and out of coronavirus hotspots in England.

Meanwhile, he also said there were 127 positive cases of coronavirus among staff and residents in care homes in Wales in the week to 4 October.

He added numbers in hospital were "increasing steadily", adding: "Very sadly, we know that more people will die from coronavirus this winter."

A "fire break" set of measures to control Covid-19 is under consideration in Wales, such as that seen in Scotland.

Bangor lockdown

Meanwhile, discussions are set to take place later to decide whether to extend restrictions in Bangor to other parts of Gwynedd.

Bangor went into lockdown on Saturday after a rise in coronavirus cases.

Bangor's restrictions affect eight wards in the city: Garth, Hirael, Menai, Deiniol, Marchog, Glyder, Hendre and Dewi.

The city had seen a significant cluster of coronavirus cases and the incident rate stands at about 400 cases per 100,000 people.

Farhat Abbas, who runs a shop on Penrhos Road in Bangor, which straddles the boundary between the locked down area and one which is free of restrictions, said customers were confused.

"A lot of customers are unsure whether they should have come out, whether they shouldn't have come out, and where is actually the boundary for the lockdown.

"It is normally a busy place. This morning it's a little bit quieter than normal."

Sian Gwenllian, MS for Arfon, which contains Bangor, called for a "clear plan" for the city: "We need to know from government - are the local restrictions working, is that the way forward or do we need to change direction?

"If we need to change direction, we have to do that in a open, transparent way that is communicated to the whole population so that people understand why things are changing.

"People are turning to me, asking me how the decisions have been made, querying why one part of the city hasn't been included."

How many cases are there in Wales?

More than 3,300 cases have been reported by Public Health Wales over the past seven days, at a rate of 106.6 cases per 100,000 people.

All of Wales' 22 counties recorded a case rate of more than 20 per 100,000 people, which the first minister previously stated would put a local authority on a watchlist.

Five counties - Pembrokeshire, Monmouthshire, Anglesey, Ceredigion and Powys - have case rates less than 50 per 100,000, a figure which, if exceeded, Mark Drakeford said would trigger a local lockdown.

Only Pembrokeshire has a case rate of less than 40 per 100,000.

Alongside Merthyr Tydfil (55th), Flintshire (76th), Rhondda Cynon Taf (77th), Wrexham (79th), Cardiff (88th), Bridgend (86th) and Swansea (100th) are among the 100 highest case rates in the UK.

Could shielding return?

Thousands of people with underlying health conditions were asked to shield during the first lockdown, but Robert West, an emeritus professor of health psychology at University College London, who advises the Welsh Government on its response to the pandemic, said things were likely to be different for anyone asked to shield.

He said: "I think it probably could [be done differently this time] because we know more about the transmission of the virus.

"We know that, for example, very few transmissions occur outside so I think it's not that people would necessarily have to be locked away in their homes, but it would depend on the sort of geographic circumstances and the population density in the area and so on.

"But I think we probably could make it a bit easier for people than it was last time."

Speaking on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast, Mr Gething said: "Part of our challenge is we know a number of people suffered during shielding - they were lonely, they were isolated, there was a real impact on mental health. We have to balance all of those things."

Andrew RT Davies, the Welsh Conservative spokesman for health, called for a return to shielding, tweeting: "Given the heightened alarm from ministers, including the Welsh Labour Government, why aren't we prioritising the protection of the most vulnerable in society by restarting the shielding process?

"For me, that should be far more urgent than shutting down the economy."