COVID-19 tests plateauing, not infection curve in Odisha: Expert

BHUBANESWAR: Odisha has been recording an average of 3,058 cases daily for last seven days, down from last week’s average of 3692.

It is also a steep drop from the September third week average of 4246 cases. An analysis of new infections shows that the State registered 21,408 cases in the first week of October as against 25,846 cases in September last week and 29,727 cases in September third week. 

Though the number of cases is on the decline, the daily test positivity rate (TPR) remains constant barring occasional fluctuations in August, September and October. Of the last four days, the TPR had been 6.3 per cent on three days while it was 6.6 on October 6 as it fell from 7.4 pc on October 1.

Even as the health authorities insisted that the infection is slowing down in the State, it appears there has been a slowdown in caseload as the tests dipped since September 26. The number of testing came down to 45,552 per day from a range of around 50,000 in September.

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The State had recorded its biggest single day spike of 4,356 cases on August 25 when 63,209 tests were conducted across 30 districts. The TPR then was 6.9 pc. However, highest 68,906 tests were conducted on August 22 when 2,993 cases were detected at a TPR of 4.3 pc. The tally now stands at 2.44 lakh.

The drop in new infections, notwithstanding, the fatality is on the rise. At an average of 16 deaths, a day, 115 Covid-19 deaths have been recorded in the State in last one week alone taking the toll to 1027.    

What do the numbers mean? Since declining cases are interlinked to reduced tests, health experts said, the development should be interpreted with caution. It is test plateauing, not the infection curve. 

The tests were reduced possibly to keep daily case count in check instead of actually ascertaining the spread of infection, they say.   

Noted microbiologist and former member of ICMR committee Dr Tribhuban Mohan Mohapatra says Odisha has been constantly slowing down tests. More importantly, it is relying on the rapid antigen tests which have less sensitivity than the RT-PCR tests that accounts only 15 pc to 20 pc.“In such a scenario, it is difficult to say that the cases are falling. 

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As many as 3,144 cases were detected among 49,909 samples on Wednesday as against 2,995 cases out of 45,358 samples the previous day. It means the cases are rising if the tests are increased. Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Assam are doing one lakh tests a day. Odisha should follow suit and focus more on RT-PCR,” he suggested.      

The State authorities, however, said Covid situation is improving in Odisha. Additional Chief Secretary Health department PK Mohapatra said the dip in positivity rate is significant because it could mean that the spread of the infection in the population is slowing down. 

“The decline can also be correlated with a relative stagnation in number of new cases in some districts and constant reduction in numbers in some other districts. However, we have asked districts to continue the targeted testing and maintain the range of 50,000 per day. We should not be complacent and remain cautious till end of this month to know the exact trend,” he said.