CHANDIGARH: Punjab managed the Covid-19 situation well while its neighbouring states of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh floundered, according to State Bank of India’s (SBI’s) research Ecowrap report.
To evaluate the performance of each state, the report followed the panel regression model, having population as a control variable with data set between April and September to predict the estimated number of cases. The states having less numbers of cases than the estimates indicate that they managed the situation well while the badly managed states had more cases than projected numbers.
Against an estimated 158,004 cases, the actual number of cases in Punjab during the assessment period was 119,186 -- about 25% less than estimated numbers. A total of 134,909 cases were seen in Haryana against the estimate of 129,136, while in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh, 16,033 cases were reported against a projected number of 2,175. Haryana and Himachal Pradesh are among eight states in the country to have recorded more cases than projected numbers.
According to the report, Punjab reached its peak in the last week of September and thereafter the daily new cases started to decline. As on October 7, Haryana has the highest number of cases in the region with a figure of 137,398 followed by Punjab where 120,868 people have been infected and 16,343 in Himachal Pradesh.
The report warned that with festive season round the corner, the number of cases might increase if precautions are not taken and listed ‘discipline’ as the key to ensuring that cases remain under control. Citing examples of Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam — the report stated that states in which these two functions were celebrated recently witnessed substantial rise in number of positive cases and Covid-19 death.
Surge in the number of cases in urban areas between July and August has been attributed to return of migrant labourers, who had shifted to their native states during March to June. The number of workers who came back to Punjab and Haryana recently was 5,15,642 and 1,289, respectively.
Apart from this. the average seven-day growth of cases in September in Punjab and Haryana was 1%, much better than Kerala – a state which was once touted as a model in Covid fight — where the average growth was about 4.5%.
To evaluate the performance of each state, the report followed the panel regression model, having population as a control variable with data set between April and September to predict the estimated number of cases. The states having less numbers of cases than the estimates indicate that they managed the situation well while the badly managed states had more cases than projected numbers.
Against an estimated 158,004 cases, the actual number of cases in Punjab during the assessment period was 119,186 -- about 25% less than estimated numbers. A total of 134,909 cases were seen in Haryana against the estimate of 129,136, while in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh, 16,033 cases were reported against a projected number of 2,175. Haryana and Himachal Pradesh are among eight states in the country to have recorded more cases than projected numbers.
According to the report, Punjab reached its peak in the last week of September and thereafter the daily new cases started to decline. As on October 7, Haryana has the highest number of cases in the region with a figure of 137,398 followed by Punjab where 120,868 people have been infected and 16,343 in Himachal Pradesh.
The report warned that with festive season round the corner, the number of cases might increase if precautions are not taken and listed ‘discipline’ as the key to ensuring that cases remain under control. Citing examples of Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam — the report stated that states in which these two functions were celebrated recently witnessed substantial rise in number of positive cases and Covid-19 death.
Surge in the number of cases in urban areas between July and August has been attributed to return of migrant labourers, who had shifted to their native states during March to June. The number of workers who came back to Punjab and Haryana recently was 5,15,642 and 1,289, respectively.
Apart from this. the average seven-day growth of cases in September in Punjab and Haryana was 1%, much better than Kerala – a state which was once touted as a model in Covid fight — where the average growth was about 4.5%.
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