Ram Vilas Paswan: The man who predicted which side the political wind blew

In Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s death, the country has lost a mausam vaigyanik or ‘weather vane’ of politics.

Perhaps no leader is credited with being able to successfully predict the directions of political winds before taking the future course of action, like he did.

Among the first to condole the death was Paswan’s friend-turned-adversary Lalu Prasad Yadav who had given the mausam vaigyanik title to Paswan.

“I am very sorry to hear the sad news of the untimely demise of Rambilas Bhai. I am reminded of the unbroken relationship of the past 45 years and all the social, political battles. Rambilas brother, you left early. I am not in a position to say anything more than this,” Lalu Prasad Yadav wrote in a tweet.

Born in 1946 to a Dalit family in Shaharbanni village near Khagaria district of eastern Bihar, Paswan was active in politics for nearly five decades and will be remembered as one of country's prominent Dalit leaders. The Union Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet had undergone a heart surgery recently.

Paswan’s death comes close on the heels of Bihar Assembly Elections beginning October 28. With Lalu, 72, in jail, the two stalwart leaders of Bihar politics have left it for their sons to take the legacy from here.

His son Chirag, who announced the news of the 74-year-old leader’s death on October 8, is leading Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), founded by his father in 2000 after a split with the Janata Dal on the issue of joining the NDA. Lalu’s son Tejashwi Yadav is leading the Grand Alliance contesting against NDA in Bihar polls.

“Today Chirag Paswan needed Ram Vilas Paswan the most. I started my political career with Paswanji and did many election campaigns with him as RJD and LJP were in alliance till 2010,” Tejashwi said.

Paswan’s knack of predicting political winds earned him the title of ‘weather vane’. And precisely so. Be it VP Singh’s National Front, HD Deve Gowda, IK Gujral’s United Front, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Manmohan Singh’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and now PM Narendra Modi’s NDA, Paswan has been part of all coalition governments since 1989, except UPA-II (2009-14).

As someone pointed out on Twitter, Paswan was a leader who was “at ease with the left, the right and the centre.”

His knack was out in open in 2005 when he and Lalu were ministers in the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government. Right before February polls, Paswan pulled out of the alliance with Lalu’s RJD in Bihar but stayed on with the UPA at the Centre.

Paswan’s LJP won 29 seats, RJD 75, JD(U) 55 and BJP 37 in the 243-member assembly. Bihar had a fractured House and President’s Rule followed.

In the fresh elections held in October-November 2005, the JD(U) bagged 88 seats and the BJP 55. Paswan’s LJP could win only 10 seats, but it managed to split votes into several other constituencies, ending 15 years of Lalu-Rabri rule in Bihar. JD (U) chief Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the chief minister of the NDA government in Bihar, with the BJP and LJP as the junior partners.

The LJP could never win enough seats to rule on its own in Bihar. But, it has tasted power and made its presence felt by stitching as well as undoing alliances.

Prior to that Ram Vilas Paswan had projected himself as a secular leader when he quit the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government at the Centre over the Gujarat riots of 2002 and joined UPA where he ended up as a Cabinet minister under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, too, Chirag Paswan-led LJP is seen as a key player. The party is contesting alone after it decided to pull out of the NDA. The LJP, however, will remain a part of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre.

Many say Chirag, 37, has gone by his father’s playbook, but it remains to be seen if he can swing the elections as the senior Paswan did in 2005.

As the news of 74-year-old Paswan's death flashed, tributes poured in from one and all.

“In the demise of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, the nation has lost a visionary leader. He was among the most active and longest-serving members of Parliament. He was the voice of the oppressed, and championed the cause of the marginalised,” President Ram Nath Kovind tweeted.

In a series of tweets, Prime Minister Modi highlighted how ‘insightful’ Paswan’s interventions used to be during Cabinet meetings. The PM called it a ‘personal loss’ and hailed Paswan as an ‘outstanding Parliamentarian’.