Coronavirus: How will winters impact Covid-19 pandemic infection?

Will Covid-19 infection make a strong comeback during winters? After defying the predictions that the virus won’t survive in India’s hot summers, Coronavirus is now going to enter the winter months. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has already cautioned that it has no reason to believe that the chilly weather can kill the virus. However, experts do agree on the fact that the varying temperature impacts virus differently with most seasonal viruses getting more active in the winter months, according to an Indian Express report. However as of now no trend has been established to showcase the impact of temperature on the novel Coronavirus.

Dr Shashank Joshi, Dean, Indian College of Physicians told the Indian Express that viral illnesses in particular the respiratory ones thrive in the cold season with the most noticeable example of flu deaths which are maximum in the winter months. However, Joshi also said that contrary to the predictions and postulations made about the spread of Coronavirus in varying temperature conditions, the virus has not shown any relationship with temperature as of now in tropical geographies. Prof Ian Barr, Deputy Director at the WHO’s Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza concurred and said there does not appear to be a strong seasonality effect in case of novel Coronavirus. Professor Barr also said that the seasonality hardly matters in case of Coronavirus which might change once Coronavirus vaccines are in use.

Why do respiratory infections thrive in winters?
It is understood that due to extreme cold weather in Western countries, people tend to remain indoors leading to the spread of virus from one member of the family to another. However, the same does not hold water in case of countries like India where the winters are not as harsh and people tend to sit in the open to get sunlight. Dr M S Chadha, who is a former Deputy Director of the National Institute of Virology told the Indian Express that ventilation in India is better as people come out to get sunlight.

Maharashtra surveillance officer, Dr Pradeep Awate told the Indian Express that the surge of swine flu cases is more prevalent in the monsoon season as compared to the winters season. He also said that the surge in winters is lesser than half of what is recorded in the monsoon season.

How have Coronavirus and other respiratory infections fared in countries in the Southern Hemisphere?
If the seasonality effect of Coronavirus was more pronounced and noticeable then the cases would have peaked in countries in the Southern Hemisphere which experience winters when the Northern Hemisphere countries are facing summers. However, there was no noticeable spike even in influenza cases as social distancing and other hygiene measures adopted in view of Coronavirus must have broken the chain of influenza infection as well.

Is India going to record a winter surge?
According to Dr Shashank Joshi, India might see the second peak of Coronavirus cases in the winter months. Dr Gagandeep Kang, clinical scientist and vaccine researcher added that in view of phase wise openings of all parts of the economy, the cases might shoot upward in the coming months.