Dist’s weekly TPR falls by 11%, expert says +ve cases, infection on decline

Nagpur: The weekly Test Positivity Rate (TPR), positive cases as against tests, of the district has reduced by 11% in the first week of October. Expert says it is a sign of decline in positive cases as well as infection. Testing has slightly improved compared to last week of September but remains lower than the first three weeks of September.
As per data of District Civil Surgeon, 41,328 tests were done between October 1 and 7 in the district of which 6,069 tested positive, giving TPR of 14.68%. Daily average of tests was 5,904 whereas for positive cases it was 867.
Of the 49,880 tests done, 12,905 came positive between September 22 and 30 for a TPR of 25.87%. Daily average of tests was 5,542.22 whereas for positive cases it was 1,433.88. It indicated positive cases did not come down but the tests declined in last week of September.
If one compares data of first week of October with last week of September, TPR has reduced by 11.19%.
TPR was 23.34% in first week of September followed by 22.96% in second week and 26.75% in third week. TPR was highest in these three weeks in last seven months. Average TPR in the month of August was 13.78% and increased to 24.63% in September.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde told TOI, “An 11% fall in weekly TPR means positive cases and infection are on decline. Cases and deaths are on decline for over last two weeks. Recoveries were more than positive cases for consecutive 17 days till Tuesday. All these are clear signs of peak of Covid-19 ending and district reaching plateau, which may continue for more than two weeks. It is the need of the hour to maintain number of tests. If TPR goes below 10%, it will mean growth rate declined for sure. Epidemic is considered ended if TPR goes below 5%,” he said.
The number of tests has slightly improved in first week of October. Daily average tests were 7,024.85 in first week of September and increased to 7,740.71. Decline started from third week of September as daily average tests were 6,211.85 and further declined to 5,542.22 in last week. In first week of October, 5,904 tests per day tests were done.
After decline, Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) has started to reach out to people. Special camps are being organized daily in residential areas. Currently, 12 mobile swab collection centres have been operationalized. Attracting some controversy, the civic body also started to test around 7,000 sanitary workers, of which majority are asymptomatic.
The district administration and zilla parishad have also chalked out some measures to improve testing in rural parts of the district.
Activist Narayan Ahuja said, “High-risk contacts of all positive patients are still not coming for testing despite special camps being organized in residential areas. NMC should pursue the high-risk contacts till all are tested. Also, private clinics and hospitals should ensure testing of symptomatic patients, comorbid and also inform NMC on daily basis.”
Corporator Pradip Pohane said, “People are now not ready to get testes unless they have any symptoms. Private doctors say number of people visiting their clinics has also declined. It is possible the season of viral infection is ending,” he said.