UMass COVID-19 model projects unsettling death toll in Massachusetts, across country

CAMBRIDGE — Some forecast models are predicting a startling rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States through the fall and winter, including a model in Massachusetts.

On Tuesday, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported that the state’s confirmed COVID-19 death toll has reached 9,323.

According to the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s COVID-19 Forecast Hub, that number will hit 10,000 by the end of October. The model also predicts 228,000 COVID-19-related deaths nationwide by the end of the month.

“It’s a grim milestone and it’s just a reminder of just how serious COVID can be,” said Nick Reich, a UMass Amherst biostatistician.

The UMass Amherst model only forecasts up to a month into the future and does not account for changes in human behavior.

“We’re looking into a foggy crystal ball here and it’s an inexact science,” Reich said. “Either way, a lot of people have died from COVID in Massachusetts. If we’re not careful, I think we could see another rise and, subsequently, deaths in these fall and winter months.”

Gov. Charlie Baker is warning Massachusetts residents to stay vigilant after the state has seen a recent uptick in cases.

“People started talking in the spring about the fact that it was likely that we would see an increase in cases in the fall,” Baker said. “That’s why we built such a significant infrastructure around testing and tracing.”

The Institute for Health Metrics model also predicts that Massachusetts will reach 10,000 total COVID-19-related deaths by the end of October, and 12,600 deaths by the end of the year.

The IHME model predicts that roughly 233,000 people across the country will have died of the coronavirus by the end of the month, and more than 363,000 nationwide deaths by the end of 2020.