Fierro: How low can Eagles go and still make the NFL playoffs?
Now that a quarter of the season is in the books and the Philadelphia Eagles somehow find themselves alone atop the NFC East standings with a 1-2-1 record, the question is: What’s it going to take to win this lowly division?
Could seven wins get it done? Six? Five?
Yes, yes and yes.
Actually, because the NFL still allows ties, the Eagles can get in without even winning another game. All that would have to happen would be for all games between NFC East opponents the rest of the way to end in ties and for their NFC East opponents to lose all their other games. That would give the Eagles the title and a home playoff game with a 1-9-6 record.
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Sound crazy?
Of course.
But not a whole lot crazier than 1-2-1 being the top record after four games.
Probably everyone would agree the NFL needs to change this antiquated playoff system that guarantees all eight division winners a spot in the postseason. How the rest of this season unfolds for the NFC East might just prompt those changes.
However, that’s another argument for another day.
Today is about having some fun and looking at the schedules of the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys (1-3), the only real competition we believe the Eagles will have the rest of the way for the NFC East crown, and trying to figure out how low these teams can go and still make it to the second week in January.
(Yes, we know the Eagles already lost to Washington. No, we don’t think it will happen again.)
OK, ready ... set ... go!
The Eagles go on the road again this Sunday to Pittsburgh, which as of Tuesday is favored by seven points despite a schedule that’s been significantly softer than what the Eagles have faced. The Steelers' 3-0 record has been accomplished against teams (Giants, Broncos, Texans) that have a total of one win. What’s more, all were relatively close contests, with only one being decided by more than a touchdown.
In other words, a win over the Steelers shouldn’t necessarily be considered a major upset.
From there, the Eagles return home for three straight games — against the Ravens, Giants (on a Thursday night) and Cowboys after having three extra days to prepare — before their bye week, which comes exactly at midseason.
The Eagles' home stretch, in order, has them visiting the Giants and Browns, hosting the Seahawks, visiting the Packers, hosting the Saints and visiting the Cardinals and the Cowboys before closing the regular season with a home rematch against that dreaded Washington Football Team.
A reasonable projection for the Eagles after everything is complete is a 6-9-1 record.
Here’s what the Cowboys (1-3) face the rest of the way: Giants, Cardinals, at Washington, at Eagles, Steelers, off, at Vikings, Football Team, at Ravens, at Bengals, 49ers, Eagles and at Giants.
The could easily finish 7-9 or 6-10.
The possibilities are endless, obviously, but could the champion that emerges from the NFC be under .500?
Absolutely.
It’s happened before in this league too.
Excluding the strike-shortened year of 1982, when two sub-.500 teams made it, the 2014 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) and 2010 Seattle Seahawks (7-9) each won their respective divisions. Furthermore, each won their first postseason game, which they were able to host.
After four games this year, the NFC East is on track to be perhaps the worst division in the history of the NFL.
The Cowboys, who have an incredibly potent offense, feature a defense that can’t stop anyone. The one win they do have came only because the Atlanta Falcons clearly did not know the rules governing the recovery of onside kicks.
The Eagles, who aren’t incredibly potent in any area, were able to get their only victory on Sunday at the expense of the only team (49ers) that is more banged up than them.
The Football Team’s only win has been against the Eagles. They have a decent defense but only a popgun attack.
And Joe Judge's Giants? Well, they don’t have any victories.
That’s a combined record of 3-12-1.
So we pose the question again: How low can the Eagles go in 2020 and still come out on top?
Unfortunately, we all seemed destined to find out over these next three months of what is sure to be exquisitely bad football.
Seven wins? Six wins? Five wins?
Everything except zero wins is still on the table.
So relax and lower your expectations, folks. Winning the NFC East sure won’t take much.
One of these dumpster fires will make it in, guaranteed.
Nick Fierro covers the Eagles for The Allentown Morning Call