September has indeed been the cruellest month as far as Kerala and its COVID-19 case burden is concerned.
In September alone, Kerala recorded almost double the number of cases it had cumulatively registered till August 31.
Till August 31, the total number of COVID-19 cases registered in the State had been 75,385. The cumulative number of deaths reported till August 31 was 294.
In September, Kerala recorded 1,20,721 cases of COVID-19 and 448 deaths. This essentially means that over 60% of the State’s cumulative case burden as well as the burden of COVID deaths were recorded in just one month.
And the scariest part seems to be that since the disease spread is not uniform across districts, in many districts, the case graphs could be peaking only in the next few weeks, extending the State’s collective agony over the month or more.
However, public health experts point out that Kerala has held out till now and with a remarkably low case fatality rate only because the epidemic has been spread out over the months.
The disease containment interventions and the general vigil exercised by people – mask wearing being the most prominent, as Kerala was the first State to implement universal mask-wearing – have resulted in a lag in the progress of the epidemic.
This has helped the State because the patient numbers did not peak overnight and threaten the health system capacity.
Plateauing in capital?
The good news for Thiruvananthapuram district, which has recorded the highest number of new COVID-19 cases every day consistently for over two months, is that the case graph could be plateauing, while in other districts cases are all set to climb. The district still would be recording 800-900 cases daily but the statistics over the past few days have given rise to hopes that the worst might be over and that the case fatality rate might be contained at 1%.