Indo-China relations: What Are The Probabilities Of war?

The India-China border dispute dates back to the Shimla Convention in 1914 British India and Tibet gave a go ahead to a de facto eastern border called McMahon Line. While China never gave its approval, India has maintained that it considers the same as the effective border in the area between India and China. It has been a long and eventful journey for both the nations since then. We are still haunted by the memories of Indo-China wars and also the Doklam standoff of 2017 when citizens of the both the countries were prepared for the worse. Similar is the situation now, following the standoff between the two countries in Galwan Valley and nearby areas that has claimed several lives on both sides.

It was for the first time in decades when soldiers deputed along a remote frontline got into a deadly hand-to-hand combat. Remember, the soldiers were reportedly armed only with sticks and rocks, still casualty soared on both sides. What followed was a flurry of diplomatic activities, statements by leaders, visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to border areas, and days later, meetings between the Defence and Foreign ministers of both the countries. India did up the ante against China on the economic front too as it banned nearly 177 mobile apps, including the likes of TikTok and PubG.

Now speculations are rife over whether the prevailing standoff between India and China would result in a war. From newsrooms to think thanks, everyone has given their opinions and tried to ascertain the probability of a full-blown war. According to the calculations, there is hardly any possibility of a war. It wouldn’t go beyond casual enmity problem and once we get rid of the menace of Covid-19, one might expect a Sino-Indian thaw.

“Since the Doklam standoff got resolved, the two countries appeared to be heading in the right direction but following the recent developments, India is currently not really fond of China. But this is not a permanent scenario,” says Guruji.

The situation is likely to normalize after a period of one year and if all remains well, the banned apps may also be back in operation in 2022.