Heavy turnover expected on Red Sox 40-man roster

BOSTON --- This isn’t the sort of extra time the Red Sox should welcome.

Postseason action started across Major League Baseball on Tuesday and spilled into Wednesday. Wildcard matchups filled time slots on a host of television networks, beginning in the afternoon and lingering well into the night.

Boston was left out of the expanded playoff field and the fun. Instead, the Red Sox are forced to pivot toward the hard work of rebuilding their 40-man roster. Those [...]

BOSTON --- This isn’t the sort of extra time the Red Sox should welcome.

Postseason action started across Major League Baseball on Tuesday and spilled into Wednesday. Wildcard matchups filled time slots on a host of television networks, beginning in the afternoon and lingering well into the night.

Boston was left out of the expanded playoff field and the fun. Instead, the Red Sox are forced to pivot toward the hard work of rebuilding their 40-man roster. Those discussions have already started among the front office at Fenway Park.

"Regardless of whether that turns into two moves or 20 moves, we just need to be ready," Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Tuesday. "I think the key for us is we’ve got a mindset of being as active as we can, creating as many options as we can, and then following through on the ones we think are beneficial to the organization.

"It’s hard to know where that will lead, but the key is we’re going to want to make moves that benefit us."

The pitching staff will be an obvious area of focus for Boston. But most clubs don’t fall into last place and finish 16 games behind the division winner solely because one part of their operation failed. The Red Sox have significant holes to close in several areas before they can narrow the gap to the Rays and Yankees.

Boston will have all of October to make some decisions. MLB roster deadlines – setting the next 40-man, triggering club options, tendering contracts – all kick in days after the conclusion of the World Series. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox aren’t already well down the road toward determining who will stay or leave, and we’ll examine that a bit here.

Extended injured list (7): Chris Sale, Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zack Godley, Colten Brewer, Kyle Hart

This is one of the ways clubs finagle extra 40-man spots throughout the season. Players on the 60-day injured list – for this shortened season, the 45-day injured list – don't count against the total. Now they will.

Sale, Benintendi and Rodriguez are locks to be added. Pedroia is entering the final year of his contract and is unlikely to take the field again. It might finally be time for the Red Sox to publicly admit what they’ve surely known for a while now – he's unlikely to wear their uniform in a game again.

Godley is arbitration eligible and should be nontendered. Brewer will be on the fringe while Hart could be outrighted to the minor leagues after posting a 15.55 earned-run average in four appearances.

Under contract (7): Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, Dustin Pedroia, Christian Vazquez, Andrew Benintendi

Pedroia could retire and bring an end to the speculation regarding his chronic left knee troubles. The Red Sox could designate him for assignment. Either way, this is trending toward a sad divorce between the franchise and a proper club legend.

Otherwise, barring any offseason trades, Boston almost certainly will bring back the other players it has under contract. Martinez is unlikely to opt out of the final two years of his deal. Only Bogaerts and Vazquez would return maximum trade value.

Arbitration eligible (11): Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, Jose Peraza, Zack Godley, Kevin Plawecki, Dylan Covey, Rafael Devers, Nick Pivetta, Ryan Brasier, Austin Brice, Ryan Weber

This group was identified according to Spotrac and is based on service time. An admission up front – there could be more or fewer Red Sox players eligible. The calculator ran short of batteries while trying to keep track of all the roster moves this summer.

Rodriguez, Barnes, Plawecki, Devers, Pivetta, Brasier and Brice would all seem to be locks. You can probably add Weber to that list as well. His performance out of the bullpen and possible value as a long man narrowly outweighs his struggles as a starter.

Peraza finished the year at the alternate site in Pawtucket, Godley posted an 8.16 ERA and Covey showed diminished fastball velocity while pitching to a 7.07 ERA – no thanks to all three. Expect them to be nontendered.

Club option (1): Martin Perez

Flip a coin on this one. Perez will be due $6.25 million should the Red Sox keep him in 2021, and that seems a decent price for a starter at the back end of the rotation who also brought a nice presence in the clubhouse. It’s a contract that a contender could absorb at the deadline if Boston is out of the playoff race yet again.

The argument against Perez includes declining fastball velocity (94.1 mph in 2019, 92.1 mph in 2020), an unlikely repeat of his good luck (.266 batting average on balls in play) and a 1.34 WHIP. A younger arm like Tanner Houck or Nick Pivetta could take his place on Opening Day. An outside addition via trade or free agency could also push Perez out of the mix.

Pre-arbitration eligible (25): Jonathan Arauz, Christian Arroyo, Yoan Aybar, CJ Chatham, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, Deivy Grullon, Matt Hall, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, Mike Kickham, Robinson Leyer, Tzu-Wei Lin, Chris Mazza, Yairo Munoz, Cesar Puello, Jeffrey Springs, Robert Stock, Domingo Tapia, Josh Taylor, Andrew Triggs, Phillips Valdez, Alex Verdugo, Marcus Walden, Marcus Wilson

Most of the Red Sox decisions will come here, and there’s a ton of fat to trim. Arauz, Arroyo, Chavis, Dalbec, Hernandez, Houck, Taylor, Valdez and Verdugo should all be locks. Grullon could be retained as organizational catching depth while premium velocity gives Leyer and Tapia more of a chance to stick around as right-handed relievers. Mazza and Springs could be long men or spot starters while Lin and Munoz could be vying for one spot – they both profile as utility men.

Walden enjoyed a strong 2019 out of the bullpen and a brutal 2020. That productive season on his track record could save him from being outrighted to the minor leagues. Aybar was the lone member of the 40-man who didn’t play for Boston or work at the alternate site this summer – that could suggest trouble for his future. Wilson was the final 40-man addition at Pawtucket and could be facing the same jeopardy.

Otherwise? Clear it out. Hall, Kickham, Stock and Triggs were all roster filler on the worst pitching staff in club history. Build some flexibility by liberally cutting ties among this group.

Rule 5 Draft eligible: Bryan Mata, Jay Groome, Jeisson Rosario, Connor Seabold, Hudson Potts, Connor Wong

Mata, Groome and Seabold have all yet to throw a pitch above Double-A. With that said, are you willing to lose any of them? Pitching prospects, especially in the Red Sox organization, should be treated like gold.

Rosario, Potts and Wong were all acquired in 2020 trades. To leave them exposed risks lessening your return for Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts and David Price. If you’re a seller who doesn’t retain and maximize the compensation received, what was the original point?

There are more than six players in the Boston system who are Rule 5 eligible. These are the most noteworthy names. Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran will highlight the 2021 group next offseason – that is, of course, if neither one of them arrives in the big leagues sooner.

Projected Red Sox 40-man roster

Pitchers (22): Barnes, Brewer, Brasier, Brice, Eovaldi, Groome, Hernandez, Houck, Mata, Leyer, Mazza, Perez, Pivetta, Seabold, Rodriguez, Sale, Springs, Tapia, Taylor, Valdez, Walden, Weber

Catchers (4): Grullon, Plawecki, Vazquez, Wong

Infielders (9): Arauz, Arroyo, Bogaerts, Chavis, Chatham, Dalbec, Devers, Lin, Potts

Outfielders (5): Benintendi, Martinez, Munoz, Rosario, Verdugo

bkoch@providencejournal.com

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On Twitter: @BillKoch25