Large volcanic eruptions can help in accurately estimating the forecast of the Indian monsoon. According to an Indo-German joint research team, volcanic eruptions improve forecasting potential due to the irregularities.
The monsoon has special importance in the agrarian economy of India and due to this good rains are able to provide for the livelihood of 1.38 billion people.
Researchers combined weather observations, climate records, computer model simulations, and data of tree rings, coral, frozen layers in the cave, and ice cores that had been buried for millions of years in Earth's history. The researchers then examined these combined data.
Researchers in the investigation found that the monsoon's association with the strongest version of El Niño in the Indian subcontinent helps in accurately assessing rainfall during the rainy season.
R. of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. Krishnan said a large volcano eruption causes small particles and gases to enter the climate in large quantities and remain there for many days.
Substances emanating from the volcano in the atmospheric region inhibit sunlight to reach the Earth's surface to some extent, and low solar pressure increases the likelihood of an El Niño effect in the next season.
He said that this is because less sunshine means less heat and thus changes the temperature differences between the northern and southern hemispheres, which largely affect the air circulation and precipitation dynamics of the atmosphere.
"Equivalence between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian monsoon is slowly changing," said Norbert Marwan of the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute (PIK). One of the reasons for this is man-made global warming, which worsens accurate monsoon forecasts. These findings now indicate a new path for monsoon forecasting.