India’s oil and gas import to double by 2050: BP Energy Outlook

The country’s oil and gas imports are expected to double by 2050 as overall energy demand grows while the dependence on coal reduces going forward. According to BP Energy Outlook 2050, the growth of energy consumption in the emerging economies will be led by India, “which is seen to be the largest source of demand growth out to 2050”.

Currently, indigenous natural gas production caters about 50% of the country’s requirements, while around 85% of the country’s crude oil is imported. Imports of natural gas in India is seen to rise significantly going forward as gas-based power plants will play a major role in balancing the rising share of renewable energy, which is uncertain and intermittent. This will deepen the country’s dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LPG).

The country aims to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from the current level of about 6%. Currently, the demand for natural gas in the domestic market is largely dependent on the fertiliser (28%), power (23%), city gas distribution entities (16%), refineries (12%) and petrochemicals (8%) industries.

Electricity consumption in the country is seen to increase robustly at 4-4.6% per annum over 2050, as “improving prosperity and living standards boost industrial and residential demand”. The country’s industrial power demand is seen to grow as “energy and labour-intensive industrial activities are increasingly relocated from the developed world and China to lower-cost economies”.

However, according to the analysis, China would likely account for over 20% of the world’s energy demand in 2050, almost twice that of India. The country has set a target to raise the capacity of installed renewable energy generation plants to 175 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2022. As on July 31, the installed renewable energy capacity was 88 GW. Another 45.7 GW and 6.8 GW power come from nonpolluting sources such as hydro and nuclear.