Bihar: Polls to drive rise of Covid cases in October-November, say experts

PATNA: Upcoming elections, festivals and more economic activities as the lockdown restrictions are eased may further add to the rising number of Covid-19 cases in Bihar if proper precautions are not taken, say, health experts, who expect cases to rise substantially, especially by the end of October.
The data shared by the health department shows Bihar registered 1,700 cases daily on an average so far this month. This is nearly a thousand less than the number of cases reported daily in August when the average per day figure was around 2,800.
Asked about the projected figure by the end of September and October, AIIMS-Patna nodal incharge for Covid-19, Dr Sanjeev Kumar said, “By the end of September, the figure will remain same, however, by the end of October it may go up to 2,500 cases on an average every day.” He added that after unlock and with more relaxations, people do not seem to care much about preventive methods.
Former president of the Indian Academy of Pediatrics (Bihar chapter), Dr Arun Shah agreed that the figures may increase in October. Citing the increasing trend across the country, especially in rural areas, he said, “If cases continue to grow in the rural areas, then the condition may deteriorate even for Bihar. At such places, people do not have adequate health facilities.”
He pointed out the huge number of AES fatalities reported the previous year in Bihar. “In 2019, there were many deaths due to AES and the reason was the non-involvement of government machinery, especially health workers who were in the election process. Most of them were busy conducting the election, which led to so many deaths. So this has to be kept in the mind that testing and other health facilities are not interrupted because of the election,” said Dr Arun.
However, Covid-19 nodal officer at JLNMCH, Dr HS Sharma had a different view. Dr Sharma said he was not expecting any increase in the number of cases now, as the peak has been crossed. “It is very difficult to say now, but one thing is clear that those who had to follow the preventive rules were following in the lockdown and those who were careless continued with that attitude even during restriction. Hence, I do not expect much rise in the cases.”
However, he added that a second surge, if it happens, will be problematic for Bihar. He is hopeful that the condition may improve after three months when herd immunity is likely to be achieved.