"If you look at today's number and they fluctuate a little bit every day, but we are looking at the 40 mark now, so if you project forward 14 days you would expect that that 14 day rolling average to the end of September will be absolutely no more than 40 and more likely to be within 20 and 30 I would hope," he said.

Premier Daniel Andrews said it was ‘highly unlikely’ that the state would meet the 14-day case number averages earlier than the October 26 target date in the state's road map.

From October 26, if the daily two-week average is fewer than five new cases, the curfew will no longer apply, there will be no restrictions on leaving home and public gatherings outside will increase to 10.

The state will also need to have an average of less than five "mystery" cases over 14 days.

Mr Andrews said he believed it would be “highly unlikely we will meet those case number thresholds” before October 26.

"It is not just about numbers, but about the passage of time," he said.

"The passage of time is, I know, very painful and very challenging for businesses and for families, but in terms of taking safe steps, it is a positive thing."

He said decisions on when metropolitan Melbourne will get to repeal certain restrictions "will be informed by what actually happens" with case numbers.

Catherine Bennett, the chair in epidemiology at Deakin University said the state’s deadly second wave had been turned around and expected more good news on the case numbers in the coming days.

"It has been wonderful to see the numbers drop each day and I think that is a big ask of people, but in fact that is what has really made the difference, not just to turn the second wave around, but really to see the numbers continue to come down," she said.

"We did see a little flattening over the last few weeks. The drop-off rate seemed to slow down a bit, but it has picked up again these last few days, so that really is encouraging...to consolidate to being around the 30 mark and we can look forward to getting down into the 20s pretty soon."

Professor Sutton suggested on Saturday that authorities could revisit the target for an average of less than five cases daily over 14 days, which metropolitan Melbourne needs to achieve by October 26 to have curfew lifted and to reopen outdoor dining at cafes and restaurants.

Professor Bennett, who has previously criticised Premier Daniel Andrews’ road map out of lockdown, welcomed the shift in the government's language.

"We've seen a lot of conversation over the week, though, so clearly these hard targets, the dates, they are all now under discussion," she said.

"It is great to hear talk about nuanced responses and common sense, that's what we want to hear and the modellers themselves are calling for the same so it is consensus that we want a more nuanced path out and particularly now that the numbers are coming down and good. That's what we want to see."

The epidemiologist also had a message of hope about the state government’s ability to contact trace as Victoria emerges from the second wave after a more decentralised track-and-trace system was announced.

"We have been a bit distracted this week with the talk about models and even curfew, because these other things should be bolstering everyone's confidence that we can manage this, and even as we do start the gentle steps to opening up and hopefully bigger steps soon, that we are in a really good position to keep the virus contained and to actually map our way ahead," Professor Bennett said.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said authorities should consider easing the requirement to move from stage three to stage two – which currently would require cases to fall to fewer than five a day over 14 days, and fewer than five mystery cases over 14 days.

"I propose that we can relax the triggers to attain transition from stage three to stage two if cases are clustered. If mystery cases are low."