Metropolitan Melbourne's crucial 14-day average for new coronavirus cases is on track to drop below 60 early next week, while in regional Victoria the 14-day average is at its lowest level since July 17.
There were no new cases reported today in regional Victoria.
Department of Health and Human Services data shows the 14-day average for new coronavirus cases in the metropolitan Melbourne region fell to 61.6 on Saturday.
For regional Victoria the 14-day average is currently 4.3. Under the state's government roadmap, the Melbourne region will be able to move to its next step of reopening on September 28 if the 14-day average for new cases is between 30 and 50.
On Saturday, new state government data was released tracking metropolitan Melbourne's 14-day average since the start of July, which shows how much this metric had improved over the past month after reaching a peak of 431 on August 8.
Here's how metropolitan Melbourne's 14-day average has been tracking against that target:
For Melbourne to reach step two, the blue line in this graph has to thread its way through the green zone between 30 and 50 by the time it reaches the dotted line placed at September 28.
If this target is met, gatherings of up to five people would be permitted, prep-grade twos and VCE students would return to school and some professions would return to work.
Some coronavirus restrictions will ease in regional Victoria from September 13, but for the area's lockdown to be loosened further it must drive its 14-day average down to fewer than five cases and there must not have been any new mystery cases, where the infection source cannot be traced, over the same period.
Its 14-day average is currently 4.3, and has been below five since September 9, which means it meets the first criterion.
But it hasn’t quite met the second criterion, with Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng saying on Thursday there had been eight new mystery cases in regional Victoria over the previous fortnight.
Here is how regional Victoria is tracking against the target of a 14-day average below five:
State government data released on Saturday shows the 14-day average in regional Victoria is at its lowest level since July 17.
Back then the area's 14-day average was at 3.7 and rising due to in part to the Australian Lamb Company outbreak in Colac, in the state's west.
On Saturday, Premier Daniel Andrews said that if current trends continue, regional Victoria would be on track to meet its step three target by mid next week.
If the target is met, movement restrictions for regional residents would be removed, hospitality venues would be able to resume outdoor dining and public gatherings of up to 10 people would be permitted.