Coronavirus: Merthyr Tydfil and RCT tests cause concern

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Merthyr Tydfil could be the next area in Wales to see a local lockdown, according to a health data expert.

The former head of health analysis at the Office for National Statistics highlighted the rising proportion of positive Covid-19 tests in the area.

In the past seven days, 4.4% of tests in and around Merthyr were positive.

That is close to the 4.8% figure seen in Caerphilly, which has gone into lockdown, and well above the 3.1% seen in Rhondda Cynon Taff.

Local MP Chris Bryant has warned a local lockdown could be brought in in Rhondda Cynon Taff "by the weekend" if cases continue to rise.

But data expert Jamie Jenkins said: "If you look at the data across the whole of Wales, Merthyr Tydfil would be the one you would be more concerned about rather than Rhondda Cynon Taff.

"Over the past seven days in Merthyr, 4.4% of tests came back positive, which is not far behind Caerphilly, and they have only done half the number of tests.

"Less people are talking about Merthyr than Rhondda Cynon Taff because the numbers are smaller but the local authority of Merthyr is much smaller.

"But if we're looking at where the next risk of a local lockdown is going to be, it's probably Merthyr above [RCT], if they apply the same principle of looking at the stats."

Merthyr Tydfil council has been asked to comment.

The number of positive tests across Wales was also "a concern", said Mr Jenkins, with the proportion doubling, from 1% to 2% in the space of the last four weeks.

How many cases have there been in Merthyr?

Merthyr Tydfil's case rate - the proportion of cases for the size of its population - has grown almost as fast as neighbouring Rhondda Cynon Taff in the last week.

The current rate is 34.8 cases per 100,000 - which is 21 cases in the last seven days.

It already has the highest case rate total, after Wrexham, following a cluster of cases in June associated with workers at a meat plant.

Public Health Wales has also confirmed it is investigating a small number of cases at a factory in the town.

More than 250 people work at the General Dynamics plant, which assembles armoured vehicles for the Army.

Will Rhondda Cynon Taff go into lockdown?

Visits to RCT care homes have already been stopped, while six supermarkets have been given improvement orders after check-up visits by officials.

There have been warnings over social distancing due to small clusters around Porth, Penygraig and Tonypandy.

The spread of Covid-19 in RCT has so far been of a different nature to the infections in Caerphilly, where there has been community transmission.

Rhondda Cynon Taff council leader Andrew Morgan said there were just days to "get on top" of rising infections and a temporary testing centre has opened in Porth.

Six supermarkets in the county have been served improvement order notices after checks by public health officials on 45 premises found they were not adhering to coronavirus regulations.

They are Tesco in Talbot Green, Aldi and Morrison's in Porth, Lidl in Aberdare, Iceland in Taff Street, Pontypridd, and the Co-op in Ynysybwl.

They have 48 hours to correct the issues highlighted or they could face further action, including closure.

Mr Morgan also announced pubs would now be inspected in a similar way to check they were complying with legislation.

"We don't want to see pubs having to close early or be closed altogether," he said.

'Fundamentally irresponsible'

Rhondda MP Chris Bryant also said he feared a lockdown could be imminent.

"If we carry on as we are then there will be a lockdown, perhaps by the weekend, because a small minority of people are being fundamentally irresponsible," Mr Bryant told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

"They are refusing to isolate when they come home from holiday, refusing to be tested when they are showing symptoms, going to caravan sites in groups of six, seven, eight families together, holding parties in houses, giving false names to pubs so they can't be traced.

"The truth is that we are all in this together. Some people think they and the people they love are magically immune but if we don't take this seriously there will be a major lockdown, which will affect people's livelihoods and finances."