The average is a key figure in the government's decision-making for its road map to ease restrictions in Victoria. The state's timeline for reopening is tied to it meeting certain targets.

The 14-day average needs to get to between 30-50 by September 28, for the state to move to step two in the road map.

The figures come as the Victorian Government moves to a NSW-style contact tracing system.

One of the researchers who developed the modelling underpinning the state government’s reopening plan said on Tuesday morning the predictions were based on a "blunt model" that did not consider localised data.

Dr Jason Thompson, a senior research fellow at the University of Melbourne, confirmed a report in The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald that the model used outdated assumptions about the state’s contact tracing performance.

"We shouldn't overstate the reliance on this model for decisions that will be made in the future," he said.

Dr Thompson said the model assumed 25 per cent of infected people would be contacted within 24 hours. He confirmed the model did not account for where the bulk of cases in the state were appearing, for example in aged care and healthcare settings.

"It doesn't talk about those sorts of specifics and but they are things the Victorian Health Department can also take into account,” he said on ABC Radio National.

"We had a very blunt model which took into account advice we had from the Victorian Health Department.

"What we're trying to explain is the dangers and the risks of rebounding into a third wave."

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