Four months ago, I published an article presenting two scenarios of the unprecedented damage that was likely to be caused to the Indian economy by the harsh and sudden Covid-triggered lockdown imposed by the government (“The lockdown hammer”, May 14, Business Standard). They were, probably, the first grim published projections, quarter-by-quarter, of the destruction of economic activity.
In one, real GDP was expected to decline by 11 per cent in 2020-21, with a crash of 25 per cent in Q1. In the other scenario, the full year decline was projected at 14 per cent, with Q1 output ...
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