Covid-19: Kerala model put to test as August active cases up 116%

KOCHI: It is testing times for Kerala and its once-lauded model of Covid control, with the state witnessing a 116% jump in active cases in August.
Its 30-day moving growth rate (MGR) for positivity is twice the national average while for active cases and mortality it is four times the national average. The number of active cases in the state has gone up from 10,862 on August 1 to 23,488 on August 31, the biggest spike in 30 days since the first confirmed case on January 30. The 30-day MGR for positivity in Kerala is just a tad behind Punjab which has the highest MGR of 122%. The 30-day MGR for positivity in India was 64% in August.
Kerala had the highest 30-day MGR in mortality in August at 163% compared to 39% in Maharashtra, 48% in Tamil Nadu and 77% in Karnataka. The 30-day MGR in mortality in India is 46%.
“The 30-day MGR of Kerala in terms of positivity, active cases and mortality have shot up, indicating that the strategy adopted by the state government has had limited impact. It calls for immediate action. Unless Kerala puts its act together, there is a likelihood of it becoming the worst-affected state, just behind Maharashtra,” said Mysore Sanjeev, convenor, Project Jeevan Raksha, a public-private partnership initiative. There is a growing consensus amongst medical practitioners that it is time to increase random testing to identify positive cases in community and not just clusters.
“The focus of the health department is on controlling mortality and morbidity. Though the death rate has increased. Till now, it has only been a proportional increase and not a worry at present. But a huge increase in active cases with shorter doubling periods mean that our healthcare machinery and already exhausted healthcare workers will be overwhelmed soon. This will prove catastrophic,” said Dr Gopikumar P, secretary, IMA, Kerala chapter.
Senior health officials, however, said the cases were peaking in Kerala only now, and when compared to other states in India -- many of which saw its Covid peak early -- Kerala is doing well with less than 1% Covid patients needing ICU or ventilator care and a total case fatality rate of 0.4%.
“There is a curious phenomenon in Kerala when compared to other states. Though our cases are increasing, our mortality and people needing critical care are low. This is mainly due to early intervention and successful reverse quarantine policy in the state,” said Dr Santosh Kumar, deputy medical superintendent, Thiruvananthapuram Medical College.