For months together, the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) region has been recording the maximum COVID-19 cases in the State. At one point in July, over 1,500 cases were being detected in the municipal corporation limits on a daily basis.
When senior Health officials, on August 8, announced their forecast that the number of cases in GHMC limits will drop to a minimum by August-end, it evoked hope as well as curiosity. Many questioned the basis of such a prophecy. Now, skim through the numbers in daily media bulletins and you will see the forecast clearly went wrong. Though the number of cases has dipped in GHMC region, it is not ‘minimal’ in the true sense of the term. In the last week of August, 300-550 cases were detected per day in the region.
‘Numbers may be more’
While over 1.27 lakh cases have been recorded in the State so far, sources in the Health department say the figures could actually be higher. “The number of cases are bound to come down at some point or the other because the chain of transmission is shortening. A lot of people who are asymptomatic could have recovered without even knowing they had COVID-19 and they might not have undergone any tests for coronavirus. If details of such asymptomatic patients make their way to official statistics, the numbers will definitely be more than what is being recorded,” a source said.
Senior officials in the department agreed. “There will be many asymptomatic patients who did not undergo tests. So, the extent of infection is much larger than we know,” said an official seeking anonymity.
In a joint study conducted by researchers of Centre for Cellular & Molecular Biology and Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, it was found that approximately 6 lakh out of Hyderabad’s crore-plus population may have been infected. The study was conducted by collecting sewage samples from all major sewage treatment plants from July 7 to August 8, to estimate the number of citizens infected.
Even if the prevalence decreases, experts have been predicting a second wave of the infection. Asked about this, Director of Public Health G. Srinivasa Rao, on August 25, had said that there could be a second wave if there is negligence in taking containment measures or if people do not maintain precautions. “Till date, no country has reported a second wave of the infections as severe are the ongoing cases,” said a senior Health official who did not wish to be quoted.
If there were to be huge congregations of any nature, the chance for it to turn into a super spreader event cannot be ruled out.