Aug deaths 7 times, cases 5 times more than total of previous 5 mths

Nagpur: With community spread having started, the district has registered seven times more Covid-19 deaths and five times more positive cases in August than those registered in previous five months put together.
The positive cases are less compared to those projected by the state government reportedly due to the administration’s failure to increase the number of tests.
The district has registered 1,045 deaths as on August 31. Of them, 919 (87.94%) deaths came in 31 days of August while the fatalities were 126 in 143 days between March 11 and July 31.
As reported by TOI on Monday, the district’s case fatality rate ICFR) increased to 3.56% which is above the average CFR of world (3.39%), India (1.79%) and state (3.15%).
The number of positive cases in the district surged to 33,365 as on August 31. Of them, 27,973 (83.83%) cases were recorded in 31 days of August while 5,392 cases came in 143 days between March 11 and July 31.
Guardian minister Nitin Raut had already declared that city is seeing community spread of novel coronavirus infection.
Consultant physician and intensivist Dr Nikhil Balankhe too confirmed there was community spread in the city in August. “Many people did not follow Covid-19 guidelines leading to spread after ease in full lockdown in June and July. Monsoon is a season known for upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and it’s quite possible that this factor also contributed to increase in cases,” he said.
With rise in cases, the administration had allowed home isolation of asymptomatic, mild symptomatic patients and home quarantine of high-risk contacts.
Dr Balankhe further said that deaths increased due to late reporting to hospitals and lack of proper facilities in government-run Covid care centres (CCCs) and dedicated Covid hospitals (DCHs). “Most of the patients are ready to be at home instead of getting admitted to CCCs where they can be monitored properly. Number of beds in government-run DCHs are 80% of total capacity whereas 20% in private hospitals. Private hospitals are getting demand for beds from 80% patients.”
“Need is to equip CCCs and government-run DCHs so that even asymptomatic patients get admitted there,” he said. Occupancy in CCCs is around 4% whereas 62% positive patients are in home isolation.
Corporator Dayashankar Tiwari blamed lack of monitoring of positive patients and no tracing and testing of high-risk contacts for sudden spike of cases as well as deaths.
On August 18, the government had projected 44,451 positive cases in the district by August 31. Currently, actual cases are 11,086 less than the projection.
MLC Parinay Fuke said actual cases might be same as projected but were not reported as testing was not increased. “There were 17,872 cases as on August 18 and projection was for new 26,579 in 12 days. It meant 2,215 cases per day. If considered positivity rate of 30%, the test should have been 7,400 per day. But it was under 5,000 per day in the district. Testing needs to be increased for early detection and treatment which can control deaths,” he said.
The Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) and district administration had already predicted peak of Covid-19 in the district in September. Raut had also said second wave at beginning of winter cannot be ruled out.