AUTO REFRESH
Aug 31, 2020 11:36 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com
India GDP Data LIVE Updates | GDP Q1 data expected at 5.30 pm today
India GDP Data Live Updates: Q1 GDP figures would put in perspective what impact the set of measures announced by the government to rebuild the economy in light of the economic slowdown and COVID-19 pandemic
India GDP Data LIVE Updates: The National Statistical Office (NSO) is expected to put out this quarter's numbers on August 31 at 5:30 pm. The Q1 (April-June, FY21) GDP figures would put in perspective what impact the set of measures announced by the government to rebuild the economy in light of the economic slowdown and COVID-19 pandemic have had. For the April-June quarter of FY21, a contraction in output has been projected. Goldman Sachs had said the Indian economy would shrink by 45 percent on an annualized basis this quarter, and its GDP will slump 5 percent this fiscal year, the steepest contraction in over 40 years. The World Bank projects 3.2 percent contraction, the International Monetary Fund pegs it at 4.5 percent and the Asian Development Bank at 4 percent. What paints an even more bleak picture is that the economic downturn has coincided with a sharp uptick in coronavirus infections, especially since reopening began in May. India has recorded 3.17 million COVID-19 cases so far - the third in the world behind Brazil and the US. The worsening situation forced states to impose localised shutdowns in July to curb the pandemic. Catch the latest updates here:
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India GDP data LIVE Updates | Expectations - Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at CARE Ratings
Sabnavis expects the GDP print to show degrowth of 20.2 percent. Except for government and Agri, all others may be negative, he said.
India GDP data LIVE Updates | Expectations - Barclays
"We expect India’s Q2 CY20 (April-June) GDP data to confirm that COVID-19 containment measures have dealt an unprecedented blow to the economy, with almost all economic activity coming to a halt as the country went into a stringent lockdown in late March," Barclays said in a note. "With the national lockdown measures being extended through all of April and May, and most states extending their own partial restrictions through all of June, the rural economy, government spending and essentials will likely be the only sectors mitigating some of the declines."
India GDP data LIVE Updates | Recession on the horizon?
Like all global economies, the Indian economy too is facing the most unprecedented shock in economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown. In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice – as per available data – in FY58, FY66 and FY80. The reason was the same each time – a monsoon shock that hit agriculture and then a sizeable part of the economy. CRISIL predicted that India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalisation and perhaps the worst to date, is here. It said the economy would shrink by 5 percent in the current fiscal because of the COVID-19 pandemic.