The National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday is scheduled to release India's official gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the first or April-June quarter of fiscal year 2020-21.The economists expect the GDP to contract in the range of 15-25 per cent during the given quarter, according to an India Today analysis of predictions, due to the coronavirus lockdown.The numbers are likely to be the worst since India started reporting quarterly data in 1996.
Barring China, the world's second-largest economy, which avoided a recession, all other major economies have felt the negative impact of coronavirus pandemic. In the second or April-June quarter of 2020, its economy rebounded by 11.5 percent, having fallen by 10 percent in the first.
Here's how the largest IMF-advanced (G-7) economies in the world have performed during the period:
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom (UK) reported the biggest decline in GDP among the world's top 20 economies with a 20.4 per cent contraction in the second or April-June quarter of 2020. It is the UK's second consecutive quarterly decline. On account of government restrictions, there has been a record quarterly fall in services, production and construction during the period.
France
France's GDP contracted by a record 13.8 percent in the second or April-June quarter of 2020 amid coronavirus lockdowns. Even as the GDP numbers were better than forecast, the performance was much worse than other Eurozone economies.
Italy
Italy's GDP shrank 12.4 percent in the second or April-June quarter of 2020. These numbers are the lowest on record since Q1 of 1995. "After the significant decrease recorded in the first quarter (down 5.4 percent), in the second quarter of 2020 the Italian economy suffered an unprecedented contraction...due to the full deployment of the (COVID-19) health emergency," the government agency which releases Italy's official statistics wrote in a note.
Canada
The GDP of Canada contracted 12 per cent in the second or April-June quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter. The contraction was on account of fall in consumer spending, business investment, imports and exports due to COVID-19.
Germany
The GDP of Germany contracted during this year's second or April-June quarter by 10.1 per cent compared with the same period last year. It is the steepest since the country's statistical office began tracking quarterly economic data a half-century ago.
US
The US GDP shrank 9.5 per cent for the second or April-June quarter of 2020. This is the largest quarterly decline since the series began in 1947, even as the market expectations were much lower than the actual number. The US had the highest growth rate among the G7 countries before the pandemic.
Japan
Japan's economy shrank a record 7.6 percent in the second or April-June quarter of 2020 amid the coronavirus induced economic woes. It is the worst economic contraction for Japan since comparable data became available in 1980, eclipsing the brutal impact of the 2008 global financial crisis.