Covid cases to peak from Aug last week to Sept 15: NMC

Nagpur: The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in the city are likely to head toward the much-anticipated peak from the last week of August and is likely to witness it by mid-September, if things shape up as per the projections, said municipal commissioner Tukaram Mundhe.
As per the data with Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC), zilla parishad (ZP) and civil surgeon’s office, the district has registered 19,000 cases in the 24 days of August, while the number was 5,392 in 143 days between March 11 and July 31.
In the last 11 days, the district has registered over 1,100 cases per day on six occasions. There was a record single-day spike of 1,257 cases on August 19 and August 21 had seen 1,228 cases. Nearly, 78% of the total cases registered in the district are from city limit.
Mundhe told TOI, “Covid peak cannot be termed based on the data for just 4-5 days. Cases are on the steep rise in the city. Start of the festivities bring a large number of people together. This also increases the chances of spread of the infection. Therefore, Covid peak is projected from the last week of August. The cases may go down from September 15 if the cases start peaking from the last week of August.”
Mundhe said, “We have sufficient number of beds so no issue as far as infrastructure is concerned. We are also continuing contact-tracing. In all, 34 testing centres have been opened. We are taking all possible efforts.”
The state government has projected cumulative cases at 44,451 by the end of August. But the government did not mention whether it will be peak or not. Total number of cases as on Monday was 24,500.
As per the projection, there would be over 20,000 cases in next 7 days, which also means 2,857 cases per day. The district has recorded around 30% positivity rate in the last 10 days. If the positivity rate remains, nearly 9,500 persons would have to be tested per day.
MLC Parinay Fuke told TOI, “Covid spread as per the projection is visible. Need of the hour is to increase testing in the city limit to over 5,000 per day and in Nagpur rural also. More testing means early detection and treatment which will curb deaths.”
Earlier, state government had projected Covid peak in the 10 days from mid-May. Then 18,902 cases — 11,114 from city and 7,788 from rural — were projected in the 10 days. As per epidemiologist, the peak was averted in May due to full lockdown.